Role of Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development (GERD)On Economic GDP A Time Series Forecasting Approach Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

Research and development is recognized as one of the important factors in sustainable development goals (SDG − 9) to build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization and foster innovation. The global Expenditure on Research and Development (GERD) is one of the essentially derived indicators. Research and Development of any country is pretentiously affected by the sincere contribution of global expenditure on research and development (GERD) and number of the researchers in R&D employed in research activities. It is known that the innovation index is the measure of any country’s global expenditure on research and development (GERD) and its contribution to developmental research, along with its support in other contributive factors of the innovation index. To support this kind of index-based study limited data is present nowadays which is not supportive of the design of policy scenarios and technology development models. For the sake of data assessment, machine learning is nowadays playing a crucial role, and therefore in this paper we have studied various machine learning models but henceforth used the ARIMA model to study the impact of data variables and its time series forecasting. In our study, a comprehensive R&D spending estimate and its correlation with other variables reveal that the midst of the global GERD shuffle has to be re-formed to escalate profound domestic research in elaborated terms.