Robust strategy synthesis for probabilistic systems applied to risk-limiting renewable-energy pricing

Abstract

Abstract. The use of economic incentives has been proposed to manage user demand in smart grids that integrate renewable sources of energy to compensate for the intrinsic uncertainty in the prediction of the supply generation. We address the problem of synthesizing optimal energy pricing strategies, while quantitatively constraining the risk due to uncertainty for the network operator and guaranteeing quality-of-service for the users. We use Ellipsoidal Markov Decision Processes (EMDP) to model the decision-making scenario. These models are trained with measured data and allow to quantitatively capture the uncertainty in the prediction of energy generation. We then cast the constrained optimization problem as the strategy synthesis problem for EMDPs, with the goal to maximize the total expected reward constrained to properties expressed using the Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic (PCTL), and propose a novel sound and complete synthesis algorithm. An experimental comparison shows the effectiveness of our method with respect to previous approaches presented in the literature.

Improving wind power utilisation under stormy weather condition by risk‐limiting unit commitment

“…Particularly, the RL dispatch methodology has gained much research attention in renewable energy integration to the electric power grids owing to its desirable features [6, 7]. In [8–10], RL dispatch is applied to determine the price of uncertainty and the price of renewable energy sources. In [11], RL dispatch is employed to integrate renewable energy sources with ramping products.…”

Improving wind power utilisation under stormy weather condition by risk‐limiting unit commitment

“…Particularly, the RL dispatch methodology has gained much research attention in renewable energy integration to the electric power grids owing to its desirable features [11,12]. In [13][14][15], RL dispatch is applied to determine the price of uncertainty and the price of renewable energy sources. In [16], RL dispatch is employed to integrate renewable energy sources with ramping products.…”

“…For a confidence level α, the total LS exceed a given amount β. An ancillary function is defined by (15) where…”

Combining Induction, Deduction, and Structure for Verification and Synthesis

“…Prove the validity of the structure hypotheses or derive reasonable assumptions that entail its validity. Since the publication of the conference version of this paper [21], the author and colleagues have successfully applied this paradigm to a variety of problems, including synthesizing requirements for cyber-physical models [49], model predictive control in a receding horizon framework [61], and synthesizing strategies for probabilistic models with applications to risk-limiting renewable energy pricing [73].…”