Robust optimisation of electricity‐heating integrated energy system based on data‐driven PV interval estimation

Abstract

Short‐term interval estimation can effectively and precisely quantify the uncertainties of renewable energy, accurately represent the range of fluctuations of uncertain variables in robust optimisation of electricity‐heating integrated energy system (EHIES) and it is getting crucial for reliable and flexible operation of renewable dominated new energy systems. The authors present a multivariate data‐driven short‐term PV power interval prediction model that consists of multiple layers, including one‐dimensional convolutional layer, ultra‐lightweight subspace attention mechanism (ULSAM), bidirectional long and short‐term memory (BiLSTM), quantile regression (QR) and kernel density estimation (KDE). The one‐dimensional convolutional layer and ULSAM can extract sequential features and highlight key information from the data; the BiLSTM processes time series data in both directions and conveys historical information; the QR and KDE models generate interval prediction with a given confidence level. Based on the proposed interval estimation, a refined PV uncertainty set can be established and adopted by robust optimal scheduling of EHIES utilising min‐max‐min algorithm. The simulation results have demonstrated the estimation accuracy and adaptability to various weather scenarios.