Abstract:The existence of significant uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction represent a major challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations concept. Weather can be considered as one of the most relevant sources of uncertainty. Understanding and managing the impact of these uncertainties is necessary in order to increase the predictability of the ATM system. We present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning in which weather is assumed to be the unique source of uncertainty. St… Show more
“…This study introduces an alternative approach to FRA modelling dedicated to efficient flight planning calculations. We propose another attempt to calculate near to optimal flight routes for FRA, comparable to these published in Rosenow et al (2019), Alieksieiev (2019), González-Arribas et al (2019) and Jensen et al (2017). The modelling and flight planning approach accumulates most of the potentially available data sets in one airspace model to provide a multi-criteria way of flight planning, as mentioned in Drupka et al (2020), Rosenow and Fricke (2019) and Rosenow et al (2019).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 78%
“…winds, turbulence and other weather phenomena. These problems are discussed in Brown et al (2019), Cheung (2018) and González-Arribas et al (2019). A thorough study on the flight planning problem concerning airspace capacity is presented in Bolić et al (2017) and Nosedal et al (2015).…”
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to provide an alternative graph-based airspace model for more effective free-route flight planning.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on graph theory and available data sets describing airspace, as well as weather phenomena, a new FRA model is proposed. The model is applied for near to optimal flight route finding. The software tool developed during the study and complexity analysis proved the applicability and timed effectivity of the flight planning approach.
Findings
The sparse bidirectional graph with edges connecting only (geographically) closest neighbours can naturally model local airspace and weather phenomena. It can be naturally applied to effective near to optimal flight route planning.
Research limitations/implications
Practical results were acquired for one country airspace model.
Practical implications
More efficient and applicable flight planning methodology was introduced.
Social implications
Aircraft following the new routes will fly shorter trajectories, which positively influence on the natural environment, flight time and fuel consumption.
Originality/value
The airspace model proposed is based on standard mathematical backgrounds. However, it includes the original airspace and weather mapping idea, as well as it enables to shorten flight planning computations.
“…This study introduces an alternative approach to FRA modelling dedicated to efficient flight planning calculations. We propose another attempt to calculate near to optimal flight routes for FRA, comparable to these published in Rosenow et al (2019), Alieksieiev (2019), González-Arribas et al (2019) and Jensen et al (2017). The modelling and flight planning approach accumulates most of the potentially available data sets in one airspace model to provide a multi-criteria way of flight planning, as mentioned in Drupka et al (2020), Rosenow and Fricke (2019) and Rosenow et al (2019).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 78%
“…winds, turbulence and other weather phenomena. These problems are discussed in Brown et al (2019), Cheung (2018) and González-Arribas et al (2019). A thorough study on the flight planning problem concerning airspace capacity is presented in Bolić et al (2017) and Nosedal et al (2015).…”
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to provide an alternative graph-based airspace model for more effective free-route flight planning.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on graph theory and available data sets describing airspace, as well as weather phenomena, a new FRA model is proposed. The model is applied for near to optimal flight route finding. The software tool developed during the study and complexity analysis proved the applicability and timed effectivity of the flight planning approach.
Findings
The sparse bidirectional graph with edges connecting only (geographically) closest neighbours can naturally model local airspace and weather phenomena. It can be naturally applied to effective near to optimal flight route planning.
Research limitations/implications
Practical results were acquired for one country airspace model.
Practical implications
More efficient and applicable flight planning methodology was introduced.
Social implications
Aircraft following the new routes will fly shorter trajectories, which positively influence on the natural environment, flight time and fuel consumption.
Originality/value
The airspace model proposed is based on standard mathematical backgrounds. However, it includes the original airspace and weather mapping idea, as well as it enables to shorten flight planning computations.
“…Here, uncertainties can only be represented by one variable, and large-scale problems are hard to compute. With these limitations, a robust optimal control calculation of trajectories with weather uncertainties are possible [24]. The influence of wind uncertainties and a realistic interpolation in the robust trajectory has been focused in [25], whereas the shortest path algorithm for a robust trajectory considering a variety of forecast ensembles has been implemented as cluster analysis [26].…”
The implementation of Trajectory-Based Operations, invented by the Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research program SESAR, enables airlines to fly along optimized waypoint-less trajectories and accordingly to significantly increase the sustainability of the air transport system in a business with increasing environmental awareness. However, unsteady weather conditions and uncertain weather forecasts might induce the necessity to re-optimize the trajectory during the flight. By considering a re-optimization of the trajectory during the flight they further support air traffic control towards achieving precise air traffic flow management and, in consequence, an increase in airspace and airport capacity. However, the re-optimization leads to an increase in the operator and controller’s task loads which must be balanced with the benefit of the re-optimization. From this follows that operators need a decision support under which circumstances and how often a trajectory re-optimization should be carried out. Local numerical weather service providers issue hourly weather forecasts for the coming hour. Such weather data sets covering three months were used to re-optimize a daily A320 flight from Seattle to New York every hour and to calculate the effects of this re-optimization on fuel consumption and deviation from the filed path. Therefore, a simulation-based trajectory optimization tool was used. Fuel savings between 0.5% and 7% per flight were achieved despite minor differences in wind speed between two consecutive weather forecasts in the order of 0.5 m s−1. The calculated lateral deviations from the filed path within 1 nautical mile were always very small. Thus, the method could be easily implemented in current flight operations. The developed performance indicators could help operators to evaluate the re-optimization and to initiate its activation as a new flight plan accordingly.
“…For instance, within the ensemble weather forecast, instead of considering one realization of weather variables, the optimization is to consider N probable forecasts. Several studies in the literature have proposed robust ATO considering the ensemble weather forecast; however, not within the climate optimal routing context (e.g., [104][105][106] for non-optimal control, and [107][108][109] for optimal control approaches). Following the robust optimal control-based methods proposed in [107][108][109], the dynamical model of aircraft is expanded with the number of scenarios (due to ensemble members).…”
Section: Solution Approach: Development Of Efficient Deterministic/st...mentioning
The strong growth rate of the aviation industry in recent years has created significant challenges in terms of environmental impact. Air traffic contributes to climate change through the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 effects, and the associated climate impact is expected to soar further. The mitigation of CO2 contributions to the net climate impact can be achieved using novel propulsion, jet fuels, and continuous improvements of aircraft efficiency, whose solutions lack in immediacy. On the other hand, the climate impact associated with non- CO2 emissions, being responsible for two-thirds of aviation radiative forcing, varies highly with geographic location, altitude, and time of the emission. Consequently, these effects can be reduced by planning proper climate-aware trajectories. To investigate these possibilities, this paper presents a survey on operational strategies proposed in the literature to mitigate aviation’s climate impact. These approaches are classified based on their methodology, climate metrics, reliability, and applicability. Drawing upon this analysis, future lines of research on this topic are delineated.
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