Robust official business statistics methodology during COVID-19-related and other economic downturns

Smith, Paul A.; Lorenc, Boris

doi:10.3233/sji-210870

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Another idea is to have a system that can accommodate two methods, the autoregressive nowcast model during "normal" periods 863 and a method leaning heavier on recent response for pe-864 riods with large economic changes. A critical question 865 is how to determine when a crisis has started, see also 866 the discussion in Smith and Lorenc [14]. In case of the 867 COVID-19 crisis with accompanying lockdowns, this 868 might be obvious but the situation might be more subtle 869 for other crises.…”

Section: Implications For the Monthly Nowcastmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The economic crisis due to COVID-19 will not be the last crisis that can affect the quality of our business statistics estimates. Smith and Lorenc [14] remark that the current COVID-19 crisis may stimulate adaptations to the methodology of producing business statistics in order to make them more robust against sharp economic changes. They make a plea to share information among different national statistical institutes in what adaptations to the methodology are effective in making them more robust against economic downturns.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Identifying and evaluating COVID-19 effects on short-term statistics

Delden¹,

Winter²,

Bemmel³

2023

SJI

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The economic downturn due to lockdown measures at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis raised the question whether any adaptations to the short-term statistics (STS) were needed to ensure accurate and relevant output. We limit ourselves to STS on turnover and related variables like volume of production. We looked into the different stages of the production process – from data collection to output – and anticipated a number of potential lockdown effects. With respect to output relevance, there was an increased interest in faster and specific output. With respect to the output accuracy, we took measures to check whether the anticipated effects really occurred and measures to mitigate the consequences. Examples of such measures are the calculation of an additional editing score function, alternative imputations and extensions of the regular analysis step. In this paper we give an overview of the anticipated effects, the subsequent measures that we took, we evaluate to what extent the anticipated effects occurred in practice and we mention some unforeseen effects. We end this paper by discussing to what extent the developed measures are also useful to keep after the economy has recovered.

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Section: Implications For the Monthly Nowcastmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying and evaluating COVID-19 effects on short-term statistics

Delden¹,

Winter²,

Bemmel³

2023

SJI

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Indonesian GDP movement detection using online news classification

Sholawatunnisa,

Suadaa,

Nugraha

et al. 2024

SJI

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stands as a pivotal indicator, offering strategic insights into economic dynamics. Recent technological advancements, particularly in real-time information dissemination through online economic news platforms, provide an accessible and alternative data source for analyzing GDP movements. This study employs online news classification to identify patterns in the movement and growth rate of Indonesia’s GDP. Utilizing a web scraping technique, we collected data for analysis. The classification models employed include transfer learning from pre-trained language model transformers, with classical machine learning methods serving as baseline models. The results indicate superior performance by the pre-trained language model transformers, achieving the highest accuracy of 0.8880 and 0.7899. In comparison, hyperparameter-tuned classical machine learning models also demonstrated commendable results, with the best accuracy reaching 0.845 and 0.7811. This research underscores the efficacy of leveraging online news classification, particularly through advanced language models. The findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of economic dynamics, aligning with the contemporary landscape of information accessibility and technological progress.

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Robust official business statistics methodology during COVID-19-related and other economic downturns

Cited by 2 publications

References 3 publications

Identifying and evaluating COVID-19 effects on short-term statistics

Identifying and evaluating COVID-19 effects on short-term statistics

Indonesian GDP movement detection using online news classification

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