Robust inference on large‐scale species habitat use with interview data: The status of jaguars outside protected areas in Central America

Abstract

Evaluating range‐wide habitat use by a target species requires information on species occurrence over broad geographic regions, a process made difficult by species rarity, large spatiotemporal sampling domains and imperfect detection. We address these challenges in an assessment of habitat use for jaguars (Panthera onca) outside protected areas in Central America. Occurrence records were acquired within 12 putative corridors using interviews with knowledgeable corridor residents. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical occupancy model to gain robust inference, allowing for heterogeneity introduced in the sampling process over space and time, using records of jaguar occurrence prone to false positives and false negatives. Probability of false detection of jaguars increased with the number of interviews conducted per unit (from 5.42% to 7.74% given <4 and ≥4 observers per unit). True probability of detection (p = 0.58) increased with the number of days interviewees spent in a survey unit per year. Failing to account for false positives biased predicted habitat use high (c. 1.8×), especially where occurrence records were sparse. Probability of site use by jaguars increased with greater forest cover, prey richness, and distance from human settlements, and decreased with greater agricultural cover, elevation, and distance from protected areas. Site use probabilities averaged 0.15–0.97 by corridor, providing relatively fine‐scale resolution of predicted jaguar occurrence consistent with known patterns of jaguar gene flow across Central America. Model validation, accounting for both false positives and negatives in the observation process, indicated moderate correspondence between model‐predicted observations and actual observations for withheld data (0.65, 95% CRI 0.59–0.71), with sensitivity and specificity rates of 0.69 (0.61–0.77) and 0.59 (0.50–0.68), respectively. These results demonstrate that reliable predictions can be achieved despite the complexity of large‐scale, interview‐based analyses of species occurrence. Synthesis and applications. Our Bayesian hierarchical occupancy model accommodated heterogeneity caused by typical sampling inequities and idiosyncrasies associated with interview data, yielding robust estimates of jaguar habitat use. Our approach is applicable to any wide‐ranging and readily identifiable species and has particular utility for rare species in human‐dominated landscapes where traditional survey techniques (e.g. camera traps) may be impractical.

Effectiveness of Panama as an intercontinental land bridge for large mammals

“…Petracca et al. () found a mean probability of habitat use (similar to occupancy) of about 0.4 in the comarca Ngäbe‐Buglé and 0.5 in the area spanning Donoso to Central Panama, which is slightly higher than our estimate (∼0.3 in both areas). Unlike our study, they parameterized their models with data from interviews conducted in 25‐km 2 units.…”

Threatened amphibians sheltered under the big cat’s umbrella: a conservation evaluation of jaguars Panthera onca (Carnivora: Felidae) and endemic herpetofauna in Nuclear Central America

“…Ground-truthing the Jaguar Conservation Network: Our umbrella analysis of the NCA jaguar network included field-validating (ground-truthing) portions of putative jaguar corridors in Guatemala, Honduras and Chiapas, Mexico. In these corridors, we conducted camera-trap surveys and systematic interviews with people living or working in areas believed to be occupied by jaguars (Castañeda et al, 2011;Figel, 2011;Calderón-Quiñónez, 2013;Chávez et al, 2016;Petracca et al, 2017;de la Torre et al, in press). A primary objective of the ground-truthing was to estimate the probability of jaguar presence in 36 km² sampling units (sensu Zeller et al, 2011), or to verify jaguar presence within specific areas (de la Torre et al, in press).…”

“…To evaluate the umbrella effectiveness of the jaguar in NCA, we measured the extent of overlap in three networks, each ~ 65 900 km² in spatial extent: the Rabinowitz and Zeller (2010) modeled jaguar network, the ground-truthed jaguar network, and a randomly selected portion of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC). The ground-truthed jaguar network refers to our field-based assessment of jaguar presence in NCA (Castañeda et al, 2011;Figel, 2011;Calderón-Quiñónez, 2013;Chávez et al, 2016;Petracca et al, 2017;de la Torre et al, in press). To generate the random network, we randomly selected portions of the MBC until its total area equaled the spatial extent of the JCUs and corridors.…”

“…We were able to verify distributions mapped by the IUCN and compare international and regional status assessments of these threatened taxa in NCA due to our familiarity with the region's amphibians and reptiles (Puschendorf, Castañeda, & McCranie, 2006;McCranie & Castañeda, 2007;García-Padilla & Mata-Silva, 2014;Johnson et al, 2017). Also, we have systematically assessed jaguar presence in NCA since 2009 (Castañeda et al, 2011;Figel, 2011;Calderón-Quiñónez, 2013;Chávez, Zarza, de la Torre, Medellín, & Ceballos, 2016;Petracca et al, 2017;de la Torre et al, in press).…”

Agricultural lands offer seasonal habitats to tigers in a human‐dominated and fragmented landscape in India

“…We therefore used a novel sampling strategy to generate detection/nondetection data for tigers that combined camera trapping and sign surveys with interview surveys of farmers resident within the matrix (Zeller et al 2011). While interview surveys are cost-effective and associated with higher detection probabilities for elusive species, they are prone to false-positive detection errors (Petracca et al 2018). A false-positive detection results when an interviewed person reports a species as present at a site where it is truly absent.…”