Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

Abstract

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971–2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of −9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7–7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

Change in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation and its Possible Teleconnection With Large‐Scale Climate Index Over the China From 1960 to 2015

“…However, they also show a decreasing trend in North China and Southwest China. The results are consistent with the results of Xiao et al () and Gu et al (). Donat et al () found more extreme precipitation occurred in the world's dry and wet regions.…”

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation Extremes and Seasonality over China from 1961~2013

“…For China, Zhai et al [7] found that there is a small trend in total precipitation for China as a whole, but there are distinctive regional and seasonal patterns of trends, and there is a great similarity between the spatial patterns of trends in extreme and total precipitation. Xiao et al [8] found that the regionally averaged maximum summer hourly rainfall rate across a large part of China has increased by 11.2%, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. Liu et al [9] analyzed the trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes, and demonstrated that global warming was the primary cause of the changes in precipitation extremes, although a number of recent studies suggested that aerosols have huge effects on precipitation extremes.…”

Likelihood of concurrent climate extremes and variations over China

“…In China, extreme climate events have exerted profound impacts on both human societies, natural environment and other industrial and agricultural sectors (Zhai et al 2005, Sun and Ding 2010, Ye 2014, Xiao et al 2016, Chen and Sun 2017. Over the past decades, a number of extreme climate events have caused large losses of life and tremendous economic losses.…”