Robert J. Gordon. The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War.

Friedman, Walter A.

doi:10.1093/ahr/122.2.524

Cited by 39 publications

(53 citation statements)

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“…But general-purpose technologies (GPTs) such as ICT typically boost growth only for a time. So the waning trend may have reflected a pause in-if not the end of-those exceptional gains Gordon, 2016).…”

Section: Common Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?

Fernald¹,

Inklaar²,

Ruzic³

2023

ERWP

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This paper reviews advanced-economy productivity developments in recent decades. We focus primarily on the facts about, and explanations for, the mid-2000s labor-productivity slowdown in large European countries and the United States. Slower total factor productivity growth was the proximate cause of the slowdown. This conclusion is robust to measurement challenges including the role of intangible assets, rankings of productivity levels, and data revisions. We contrast two main narratives for the stagnating productivity frontier: The shock of the Global Financial Crisis; and a common slowdown in productivity trends. Distinguishing these two empirically is hard, but the pre-recession timing of the U.S. slowdown suggests an important role for the common-trend explanation. We also discuss the unusual pattern of productivity growth since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although it is early, there is little evidence so far that the large pandemic shock has changed the slow pre-pandemic trajectory of productivity growth.

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Section: Common Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?

Fernald¹,

Inklaar²,

Ruzic³

2023

ERWP

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“…Potential growth in OECD economies is estimated to have increased in recent years, although it is still weaker than before the global financial crisis (ECB, 2018). Prior to the crisis, potential growth was judged to be on a secular downward trend by many scholars (Blanchard et al, 2015;Gordon, 2017;Storm, 2022). The mean growth rates of 𝐴𝐴 𝐴𝐴 and TFP are 1.60/1.05% and 0.80/0.25%, at an annual rate, over 1980-2008 and 2009-2020, respectively.…”

Section: T a B L E 1 Summary Statistics Of The Main Variables (Growth...mentioning

confidence: 99%

How capital intensity affects technical progress: An empirical analysis for 17 advanced economies

2023

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In this paper we present a model of economic growth with endogenous technical progress. We test if the neoclassical growth model accepts the assumption that capital intensity affects Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the long run. Our view takes inspiration from Kaldor's growth model of 1957 in which the Technical Progress Function (TPF) responds to the joint behavior of capital intensity and inventiveness.We find that "movements along a production function cannot be distinguished from shifts in this function" as formalized by the TPF. The model is tested using a Structural VAR for 17 advanced economies, over the period 1980-2020. On impact, when capital intensity improves, TFP increases sharply. This response is large and persistent over time and explains about half as much as of measured TFP. It confirms that capital intensity is an omitted variable in the traditional scheme used to estimate technical progress. Notably, the standard neoclassical growth model is not consistent with this evidence. Our analysis also shows that demand shocks can have permanent effects on output and unemployment. Finally, monetary policy helps to stabilize the business cycle, but loses its effectiveness in the long run.

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“…Innovation , which R&D proxies, has a significant effect on determining productivity growth. Thus, reductions in spending on research and development and a slowing pace of innovation could lead to a productivity slowdown (Wroński, 2019)—the so‐called “secular stagnation” largely associated with fading technological opportunities (Gordon, 2016) and a global innovation slowdown (Summers, 2014). The impact (elasticity) of R&D on productivity is larger in regions that higher innovation performance (e.g., knowledge hubs) characterizes, while industry affiliation and regional characteristics mediate the gains from R&D (Prenzel et al, 2018; Vogel, 2013).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A holistic approach of the labour productivity slowdown in the regions of the European Union

Tsiapa

2023

Papers in Regional Science

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Productivity growth reflects the efficiency and the improvements in prosperity of economies. The productivity slowdown that has emerged in many advanced countries jeopardizes their economic potential and social cohesion.This paper attempts to analyse the complex problem of productivity and detect the culprits in the European Union's productivity slowdown. From a holistic viewpoint, the paper explores a multidimensional context of socio-economic and institutional factors, as well as the existence of spillover effects through a regional-aspect compound analysis.Studying the productivity slowdown of NUTS 2 regions for the period 2000-2019 the analysis discerns four categories of factors that lead to valuable policy implications.

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Robert J. Gordon. The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War.

Cited by 39 publications

References 0 publications

The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?

The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?

How capital intensity affects technical progress: An empirical analysis for 17 advanced economies

A holistic approach of the labour productivity slowdown in the regions of the European Union

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