Riverine Flood Hazard: Disaster Risk Reduction in India

Abstract

The economic risk from and social vulnerability to riverine floods in India is one of the highest, if not the highest, in the world, with millions of people exposed and vulnerable, and billions of rupees worth of property and infrastructure at risk. Between 1953 and 2011, the total number of human lives lost to floods was 97,551 and the total economic cost of floods in India was 4.506x10 12 INR (6912x10 7 USD) in 2017 prices. Embankments have been the dominant flood protection scheme, or Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, since Independence and despite the heroic construction of tens of thousands of embankments to protect lives and property from floods, economic damage continues to rise, even when normalized for inflation to take account of increasing wealth and therefore an increase in the amount of property that can be damaged. Explanations of this apparent paradox vary, but appear to centre on breaches in embankments, incomplete embankments, sedimentation in channels because of embankments and therefore deeper and more dangerous floods, human encroachment onto floodplains partly as a result of 'the levee effect' whereby people feel safe in the presence of embankments, and the displacement of traditional coping mechanisms by government initiatives. While governments, NGOs, and academics have often discussed non-structural DRR, and some is in place, there has been little development of this approach to more completely complement structural interventions to reduce deaths and damage. A workshop of flood management practitioners and analysts in February 2017 produced a set of recommendations for a more robust form of DRR for India, and they are presented as a contribution to at least moderate what has become an existential crisis for many Indians.

Increasing Flood Frequencies Under Warming in the West‐Central Himalayas

“…The rainfall intensity and frequency are projected to increase in India due to climate change (Goswami et al., 2006), worsening flood hazard conditions (Rupa & Mujumdar, 2019; Swarnkar et al., 2021; Wasson et al., 2019). AMF originating from the western and west‐central Himalayas is increased up to 100% between 1980 and 2003, posing a severe threat to immediate downstream regions (Chug et al., 2020).…”

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Northern India is home to large river basins, particularly the Ganga and its Himalayan tributaries, transporting a vast amount of water to the Bay of Bengal annually (Sinha & Tandon, 2014). These river basins are also characterized as some of the world's most disastrous flood-prone regions (Sinha et al, 2022;Wasson et al, 2019), producing catastrophic floods annually. Over 18 million people are directly affected by increasing flood frequencies caused by extreme rainfall events each year (Kumar & Mishra, 2020;Rupa & Mujumdar, 2019;Swarnkar et al, 2021).

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Unintended Consequences of Disaster Mitigation: A Systematic Review of the Safe Development Paradox

“…Lawrence et al (2013),Rohr (2013),Salman and Hurlbert (2022),Smits et al (2006),Wasson et al (2019). These studies either indirectly assessed the SDP and LE or focused on phenomena mitigation measures instead of assessing the SDP or LE.…”