River Flow Alterations Caused by Intense Anthropogenic Uses and Future Climate Variability Implications in the Balkans

Papadaki, Christina; Dimitriou, Elias

doi:10.3390/hydrology8010007

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In both cases, the figures demonstrate a more-than-double runoff decrease when the RCP8.5 climatic scenario is applied. Research on the Drin Basin, which is in proximity with the two case study basins, validates the current outputs, since Papadaki and Dimitriou [69] concluded that the discharges trend slope expressed in percent per year equals −0.14% and −0.5% under the REMO2009 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations, respectively. In case of the E-HYPE simulations triggered by the RACMO22E model, the outputs are very similar in both rivers for the RCP4.5 scenario, i.e., runoff reduction of about 6.3% for the STF period and runoff reduction < 1.6% for the LTF period; while for the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5/LTF), the projected discharge decline is approximately 15.0% for both rivers in comparison to the REF period.…”

Section: Interpretation Of Findingssupporting

confidence: 55%

“…As far as the simulations connected to the RCA4 climatic model are concerned, the discharges are projected to decrease less than 3.79% and about 12.6-17.7% for the STF and LTF periods, respectively, under the RCP4.5 scenario for both rivers. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, a doubling of the runoff decrease is foreseen between the STF and LTF periods, e.g., in the Axios River the STF simulated runoff decrease of 14.4% turns to 27.41% for the LTF period; this is an argument about the model predictions that is supported by the literature [69].…”

Section: Interpretation Of Findingsmentioning

confidence: 61%

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Run-Of-River Small Hydropower Plants as Hydro-Resilience Assets against Climate Change

Skoulikaris

2021

Sustainability

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Renewable energy sources, due to their direct (e.g., wind turbines) or indirect (e.g., hydropower, with precipitation being the generator of runoff) dependence on climatic variables, are foreseen to be affected by climate change. In this research, two run-of-river small hydropower plants (SHPPs) located at different water districts in Greece are being calibrated and validated, in order to be simulated in terms of future power production under climate change conditions. In doing so, future river discharges derived by the forcing of a hydrology model, by three Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways, are used as inputs for the simulation of the SHPPs. The research concludes, by comparing the outputs of short-term (2031–2060) and long-term (2071–2100) future periods to a reference period (1971–2000), that in the case of a significant projected decrease in river discharges (~25–30%), a relevant important decrease in the simulated future power generation is foreseen (~20–25%). On the other hand, in the decline projections of smaller discharges (up to ~15%) the generated energy depends on the intermonthly variations of the river runoff, establishing that runoff decreases in the wet months of the year have much lower impact on the produced energy than those occurring in the dry months. The latter is attributed to the non-existence of reservoirs that control the operation of run-of-river SHPPs; nevertheless, these types of hydropower plants can partially remediate the energy losses, since they are taking advantage of low flows for hydropower production. Hence, run-of-river SHPPs are designated as important hydro-resilience assets against the projected surface water availability decrease due to climate change.

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Section: Interpretation Of Findingssupporting

confidence: 55%

Section: Interpretation Of Findingsmentioning

confidence: 61%

Run-Of-River Small Hydropower Plants as Hydro-Resilience Assets against Climate Change

Skoulikaris

2021

Sustainability

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“…In terms of hydrological cycle "sojourn" river water turnover takes place in 16 days [21]. As a result, river flow is impacted as seen in Europe [22], in the United Kingdom [23], in the Balkans [24], in Ethiopia [25], in India [26], and in West Africa [27]. Precipitation and temperature scenarios of climate change based on atmospheric circulation play an important role [28] and so do diagnostic statistics of daily rainfall variability in an evolving climate [29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Availability for the Environmental Flow in Two Rivers of Mexico under Climate Change

González-Villela¹,

Tarabay²,

Carro³

2023

River Basin Management - Under a Changing Climate

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Adaptation to climate change requires, among others, the modification of river flow regimes to account for the change in household, agricultural, industry, and energy water consumption as well as their short/medium/long-term socioeconomic impact. In this study, the comparative analysis of the variation of the precipitation in relation to the availability of water in the Yautepec and Cuautla rivers in Morelos, Mexico, for the previous period and subsequent period is carried out, to determine the change in the availability of water in the ecosystem. In winter (February), an increase in rainfall on the Yautepec and Cuautla River was observed, where annual seasonal agriculture and Pine and Oyamel forest are the characteristic vegetation. In autumn (October), a decrease in precipitation takes place. The flows in some regions do not coincide with the increase in the percentage of precipitation (Oaxtepec and Las Estacas Stations) and point out the synergistic effect of the human use of the water resource and the effects of climate change. On Ticumán Station, the depletion of the flow only can be associated with the use of the resource by human influence. The modifications caused by alteration of a river’s flow regime and climatic change must be studied through comparative multidisciplinary studies that give to decision-makers the design of environmental flows.

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“…Além da variabilidade climática, as alterações antropogênicas no uso e cobertura do solo e as mudanças no regime hídrico encontramse entre os maiores desafios globais a serem enfrentados nos estudos hidrológicos (Garg et al, 2019;Papadaki e Dimitriou, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Calibração e validação de modelos hidrológicos para uma bacia hidrográfica do estado de Goiás

Boldrin

Benício²,

Rodrigues³

et al. 2022

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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Este trabalho teve o objetivo de implementar, calibrar e validar os modelos conceituais de chuva-vazão Tank Model e HyMOD no intuito de simular a vazão na bacia hidrográfica do Rio das Almas no estado de Goiás. O conjunto de dados utilizados abrangeu uma série de 32 anos de dados hidrológicos diários (01 de agosto de 1982 a 31 de julho de 2017), os anos de 1995, 1996 e 1997 foram excluídos por não apresentarem dados completos de vazão. Os dados de precipitação foram obtidos através dos registros das três estações pluviométricas localizadas na área da bacia e o volume de precipitação média diária foi calculada por meio do Método de Thiessen. A otimização dos parâmetros dos modelos Tank Model e HyMOD foi realizada por meio de dois métodos automáticos de calibração utilizando algoritmos da ferramenta Solver do Excel: Programação não-linear do Gradiente Reduzido Generalizado (GRG) e o método Evolutionary. Tais algoritmos foram aplicados considerando dados de vazão e precipitação em escala diário e mensal. Essas escalas foram utilizadas com intuito de compara os resultados obtidos. A análise de desempenho foi realizada com o coeficiente de eficiência Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). Ambos os modelos puderam ser calibrados de maneira satisfatória para os dados de entrada da bacia em estudo e apresentaram melhor desempenho na escala mensal. Entretanto, o HyMOD apresentou melhor ajuste na calibração (NSE: 0,80) e maior flexibilidade no ajuste dos coeficientes NSE e uma representação gráfica mais precisa quando comparada ao Tank Model (NSE: 0,75).Palavras – chave: Modelagem Hidrológica, calibração, validação, HyMOD, Tank Model. Calibration and validation of hydrological models for a hydrographic basin in the state of Goiás. ABSTRACTThis work aimed to implement, calibrate, and validate the conceptual rain-runoff models Tank Model and HyMOD to simulate the flow in the Rio das Almas hydrographic basin in the state of Goiás. The dataset used covered a series of 32 years of daily hydrological data (August 1, 1982, to July 31, 2017), the years 1995, 1996 and 1997 were excluded for not presenting complete flow data. Precipitation data were obtained from the records of the three pluviometric stations located in the basin area and the daily mean precipitation volume was calculated using the Thiessen Method. The optimization of the parameters of the Tank Model and HyMOD models was performed using two automatic calibration methods using algorithms from the Excel Solver tool: Nonlinear Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) programming and the Evolutionary method. Such algorithms were applied considering flow and precipitation data on a daily and monthly scale. These scales were used to compare the results obtained. The performance analysis was performed with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE). Both models could be satisfactorily calibrated for the input data of the basin under study and presented better performance in the monthly scale. However, the HyMOD showed better calibration adjustment (NSE: 0.80) and greater flexibility in the adjustment of NSE coefficients and a more accurate graphical representation when compared to the Tank Model (NSE: 0.75).Keywords: Hydrological Modeling, Calibration, Validation, HyMOD, Tank Model.

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River Flow Alterations Caused by Intense Anthropogenic Uses and Future Climate Variability Implications in the Balkans

Cited by 13 publications

References 42 publications

Run-Of-River Small Hydropower Plants as Hydro-Resilience Assets against Climate Change

Run-Of-River Small Hydropower Plants as Hydro-Resilience Assets against Climate Change

Water Availability for the Environmental Flow in Two Rivers of Mexico under Climate Change

Calibração e validação de modelos hidrológicos para uma bacia hidrográfica do estado de Goiás

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