River flood risk and adaptation in Europe—assessment of the present status

Lugeri, Nicola; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Genovese, Elisabetta; Hochrainer, Stefan; Radziejewski, Maciej

doi:10.1007/s11027-009-9211-8

Cited by 93 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…If we assume that only half of the losses would be financed by the government (an assumption which may not be too far from reality, see Lugeri, Kundzewicz, Genovese, Hochrainer, & Radziejewski, 2010), we find Australia able to finance direct losses up to the 400 year event. However, it is well known that taking loans for financing disasters in Australia is not currently seen as politically acceptable, therefore when we considering only the 10 billion USD from budget diversion a different picture emerges.…”

Section: Risk Layers For Australiamentioning

confidence: 94%

Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

Hochrainer‐Stigler

Keating

Handmer

et al. 2018

Environmental Hazards

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This paper explores sovereign risk preferences against direct and indirect natural disasters losses in industrialized countries. Using Australia as a case study, the analysis compares expected disaster losses and government capacity to finance losses. Utilizing a national disaster loss dataset, extreme value theory is applied to estimate an all-hazard annual loss distribution. Unusually but critically, the dataset includes direct as well as indirect losses, allowing for the analysis to consider the oft-ignored issue of indirect losses. Expected annual losses (direct, and direct plus indirect) are overlaid with a risk-layer approach, to distinguish low, medium and extreme loss events. Each risk layer is compared to available fiscal resources for financing losses, grounded in the political reality of Australian disaster financing. When considering direct losses only, we find support for a risk-neutral preference on the part of the Australian government for low and medium loss levels, and a risk-averse preference in regard to extreme losses. When indirect losses are also estimated, we find that even medium loss levels are expected to overwhelm available fiscal resources, thereby violating the available resources assumption underlying arguments for sovereign risk neutrality. Our analysis provides empirical support for the assertion that indirect losses are a major, under-recognised concern for industrialized countries. A risk-averse preference in regard to medium and extreme loss events recommends enhanced investment in both corrective and prospective risk reduction in relation to these risks level, in particular to reduce indirect losses. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Risk Layers For Australiamentioning

confidence: 94%

Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

Hochrainer‐Stigler

Keating

Handmer

et al. 2018

Environmental Hazards

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“…de Moel et al (2009) noted that flood extent maps are the most commonly produced flood maps in Europe, and that only very few countries have developed flood risk maps that comply with the European Directive (2007/60/EC). Later, Lugeri et al (2010) developed a flood hazard map of Europe, identifying low-lying areas adjacent to rivers, and used it with land-use data and a damage-stage relationship to identify flood risk. A coarse global-scale flood risk assessment was also developed by Ward et al (2013) using global hydrological and hydraulic modelling.…”

Section: Flood Hazard Exposure Vulnerability and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Topography- and nightlight-based national flood risk assessment in Canada

Elshorbagy

Bharath

Lakhanpal

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In Canada, flood analysis and water resource management, in general, are tasks conducted at the provincial level; therefore, unified national-scale approaches to waterrelated problems are uncommon. In this study, a nationalscale flood risk assessment approach is proposed and developed. The study focuses on using global and national datasets available with various resolutions to create flood risk maps. First, a flood hazard map of Canada is developed using topography-based parameters derived from digital elevation models, namely, elevation above nearest drainage (EAND) and distance from nearest drainage (DFND). This flood hazard mapping method is tested on a smaller area around the city of Calgary, Alberta, against a flood inundation map produced by the city using hydraulic modelling. Second, a flood exposure map of Canada is developed using a land-use map and the satellite-based nightlight luminosity data as two exposure parameters. Third, an economic flood risk map is produced, and subsequently overlaid with population density information to produce a socioeconomic flood risk map for Canada. All three maps of hazard, exposure, and risk are classified into five classes, ranging from very low to severe. A simple way to include flood protection measures in hazard estimation is also demonstrated using the example of the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba. This could be done for the entire country if information on flood protection across Canada were available. The evaluation of the flood hazard map shows that the topography-based method adopted in this study is both practical and reliable for large-scale analysis. Sensitivity analysis regarding the resolution of the digital elevation model is needed to identify the resolution that is fine enough for reliable hazard mapping, but coarse enough for computational tractability. The nightlight data are found to be useful for exposure and risk mapping in Canada; however, uncertainty analysis should be conducted to investigate the effect of the overglow phenomenon on flood risk mapping.

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“…Overall annual aggregated losses from flood disasters in Europe, as well as insured (inflation adjusted) losses, are increasing, but with considerable volatility from year to year (Kron, 2012;Lugeri et al, 2010).…”

Section: Observations -Change Detection In Flood Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change track in river floods in Europe

Kundzewicz

2015

Proc. IAHS

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Abstract.A holistic perspective on changing river flood risk in Europe is provided. Economic losses from floods have increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. Climate change (i.e. observed increase in precipitation intensity, decrease of snowpack and other observed climate changes) might already have had an impact on floods. However, no gauge-based evidence had been found for a climate-driven, widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades. There are strong regional and sub-regional variations in the trends. Moreover, it has not been generally possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change.Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local floods, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected. However, there is low confidence in future changes in flood magnitude and frequency resulting from climate change. The impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes.Discussion of projections of flood hazard in Europe is offered. Attention is drawn to a considerable uncertainty -over the last decade or so, projections of flood hazard in Europe have largely changed.

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River flood risk and adaptation in Europe—assessment of the present status

Cited by 93 publications

References 8 publications

Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

Topography- and nightlight-based national flood risk assessment in Canada

Climate change track in river floods in Europe

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