Risks of Pre-Monsoon Extreme Rainfall Events of Bangladesh: Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Playing a Role?

Rimi, Ruksana H.; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles; Barbour, Emily

doi:10.1175/bams-d-18-0152.1

Cited by 26 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…Further disentangling the contributions from greenhouse gases (GHG) and other anthropogenic forcings, specifically aerosols, would improve understanding of the attribution outcome (e.g., Rimi et al 2019;Kumari et al 2019). Despite the lack of separate forcing experiments from HadGEM3-A, we suspect that the weakening of the EASM and persistent heavy rainfalls due to anthropogenic forcings is largely induced by aerosols.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic Influence on 2018 Summer Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Central Western China

Zhang

Zhu

et al. 2020

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic Influence on 2018 Summer Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Central Western China

Zhang

Zhu

et al. 2020

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…Both ENSO and IO SSTA are recognized as two major drivers of monsoon precipitation variability, interannually in South Asia (Khandu et al 2017) and subseasonally in Bangladesh (Rimi et al 2018). Here, considering both oceanic phenomena as potentially triggering interannual and seasonal rainfall anomaly fluctuations, the linkage between ENSO and IO phases and monsoon onset and withdrawal was explored.…”

Section: Assessing Interannual Variability and Teleconnections With Sstmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh

Montes

Acharya

Stiller-Reeve

et al. 2021

Atmospheric Science Letters

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This research investigates the interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh, both of which are major climate features shaping multiple societal activities. There is considerable research on the monsoon timing in South Asia, but with much less focus on Bangladesh. We applied a local monsoon onset and withdrawal definition to observations and the latest-generation high-resolution gridded precipitation data from the Climate Hazards Center for the period 1981 through 2018. We analyzed the interannual variability in monsoon timing in Bangladesh and its teleconnection with the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the Pacific Ocean (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The monsoon starts with early significant rains in northeast Bangladesh and propagates westward, and a similar pattern is observed for withdrawal, which tends to be more homogeneous in time and space. A high spatial and temporal variability in monsoon onset and withdrawal is observed in Bangladesh, with a within-country average range of around 1 month despite it being a country of relatively small size. The association between monsoon onset and withdrawal and ENSO and IO is addressed at the country and regional level by analyzing composites for different ENSO and IO phases and associated atmospheric circulation and moisture transport. A similar association between monsoon onset and ENSO and IO phases was found, with generally earlier (later) onset dates during the negative (positive) phase of ENSO and IO. Monsoon withdrawal shows a clearer association with ENSO, with earlier (later) dates during the positive (negative) phase. Monsoon withdrawal is earlier during the negative IO phase. SSTA-induced anomalies in circulation and moisture transport contribute to anomalies in monsoon timing. Results suggest both ENSO and IOD can be potentially used as sources of predictability of monsoon onset and withdrawal over specific regions of Bangladesh.

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“…This property of RCMs can lead to model biases in the local atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Using large ensembles of RCM simulations, Lucas-Picher et al (2011), Nowreen et al (2015), and Rimi et al (2019) showed that there are significant dry biases present all over Bangladesh with maximum bias over the northeast and southeast regions. A study conducted by Nazrul Islam et al (2008) found that an RCM overestimated precipitation in the pre-monsoon and winter seasons.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of local topography and sea surface temperature on summer monsoon precipitation over Bangladesh and northeast India

Fahad

Singh

Kamal

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Bangladesh receives most of its precipitation from June to September in the form of rainfall as a part of the Asian summer monsoon system. Bangladesh is a relatively flat region, surrounded by the southern Himalayas and Meghalaya Plateau in the north, Arakan Mountains in the east, and the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the south. Although several studies have investigated the mechanisms that drive the Asian monsoon precipitation, very few studies have focused on the monsoon precipitation in Bangladesh. This study investigated the influence of the topography of the surrounding regions and sea surface temperature on the summer monsoon precipitation of Bangladesh and the surrounding regions. Using observed data, we showed that moisture convergence near the mountains contributes to the precipitation of Bangladesh, whereas the BOB acts as a source of moisture. A strong low-level jet carries the moisture inland as the land-sea thermal contrast intensifies the wind circulation during the summer. Three differently forced simulations of the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change coupled climate model (CMCC CM2) were analysed to investigate the influence of the surrounding region's topography and sea surface temperature on the summer monsoon precipitation. The low-resolution simulation showed no spatial variability of precipitation and dry bias due to the overly smooth topographical representation of mountains. The high-resolution coupled simulation, with a better representation of topography, improved the moisture convergence at the foothills and precipitation bias. The high-resolution prescribed sea surface temperature further improved the precipitation bias by intensifying the lowlevel jet that transports moisture over Bangladesh.

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Risks of Pre-Monsoon Extreme Rainfall Events of Bangladesh: Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Playing a Role?

Cited by 26 publications

References 18 publications

Anthropogenic Influence on 2018 Summer Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Central Western China

Anthropogenic Influence on 2018 Summer Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Central Western China

Interannual variability of monsoon onset and withdrawal in Bangladesh

The role of local topography and sea surface temperature on summer monsoon precipitation over Bangladesh and northeast India

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