Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects: The case of onshore and offshore wind parks

Gatzert, Nadine; Kosub, Thomas

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.103

Cited by 170 publications

(137 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Lateral boundary conditions (LBC) for these 15 simulations are supplied every 6-hours from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (Dee et al, 2011). The NOAA Real Time Global sea surface temperature (RTG-SST) data set (Gemmill et al, 2007) is used to provide initial SST and Great Lakes conditions and are updated every 24 hours. Data from the 30-arc second Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED) (Danielson and Gesch, 2011) are used to describe the topography and for consistency with our use of the Noah land surface scheme, land cover is described using the Noah-modified 21-category IGBP-MODIS land use data set 20 (Friedl et al, 2010).…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…25 Accurate quantification of the wind resource and the P50(AEP) and P90(AEP) presents a significant challenge to current models (Zhang et al, 2015), and even small uncertainties in modelled wind speeds cause major uncertainties in P50 (AEP) and P90(AEP) and significantly impact the cost of investment capital in new wind projects (Tindal, 2011;Clifton et al, 2016). Capital investments by the wind energy industry within the United States of America during 2016 are estimated at $14.5 billion (Dykes et al, 2017), while estimates of investment in the European offshore wind energy are projected to be 30 between $90-124 billion over the period 2013-2020(Gatzert and Kosub, 2016. Even small refinements of perceived and actual project risk deriving from the interannual variability of wind speeds may provide tremendous cost efficiencies (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inter-annual variability of wind climates and wind turbine annual energy production

Pryor¹,

Shepherd²,

Barthelmie³

2018

Preprint

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Abstract.Inter-annual variability (IAV) of expected annual energy production (AEP) from proposed wind farms plays a key role in dictating project financing. IAV in pre-construction projected AEP and the difference in 50 th and 90 th percentile (P50 and P90) AEP derives in part from variability in wind climates. However, the magnitude of IAV in wind speeds at/close to wind 10 turbine hub-heights is poorly constrained and maybe overestimated by the 6% standard deviation of annual mean wind speeds that is widely applied within the wind energy industry. Thus there is a need for improved understanding of the longterm wind resource and the inter-annual variability therein in order to generate more robust predictions of the financial value of a wind energy project. Long-term simulations of wind speeds near typical wind turbine hub-heights over the eastern USA indicate median gross capacity factors (computed using 10-minute wind speeds close to wind turbine hub-heights and the 15 power curve of the most common wind turbine deployed in the region) that are in good agreement with values derived from operational wind farms. The IAV of annual mean wind speeds at/near to typical wind turbine hub-heights in these simulations is lower than is implied by assuming a standard deviation of 6%. Indeed, rather than in 9 in 10 years exhibiting AEP within 0.9 and 1.1 times the long-term mean AEP, results presented herein indicate that over 90% of the area in the eastern USA that currently has operating wind turbines simulated AEP lies within 0.94 and 1.06 of the long-term average. 20Further, IAV of estimated AEP is not substantially larger than IAV in mean wind speeds. These results indicate it may be appropriate to reduce the IAV applied to pre-construction AEP estimates to account for variability in wind climates, which would decrease the cost of capital for wind farm developments.

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Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-annual variability of wind climates and wind turbine annual energy production

Pryor¹,

Shepherd²,

Barthelmie³

2018

Preprint

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show abstract

“…Identifying alternative sources of energy is a risk mitigation process other than insurances are very complex and requires work at multidimensional levels of complexity. However, for investment in renewable sources, a major hindrance other than the execution of the project itself is the regulatory requirements prevailing in a given country along with the country's long-term strategic goals which can limit alternative risk mitigation strategies [12].…”

Section: Risk and Innovative Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Mitigation Strategies in Innovative Projects

Ahmed¹

2017

Key Issues for Management of Innovative Projects

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“…By reviewing articles specially Gatzert and Kosub [5] and Prostean et al [6] and reviewing projects, risks in wind energy projects were accomplished in this field and categorized in seven groups as mentioned in Table 1 (Table 1, risk classification).…”

Section: Identify Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Off-Shore Wind Energy Project’s Risks

Mirkheshti¹,

Feshari²

2017

Journal of Energy

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The benefits of wind power can solve the issue of growing power consumption with insufficient distribution facilities. Based on an extensive research on more than 20 studies, this study explores the risks associated with off-shore wind energy in Persian Gulf in Iran. This paper tries to identify the risks in related off-shore wind energy project, in order to specify which variables have the most impact on project by qualitative analysis through application of the impact and the possibility of every risk. A survey was conducted in order to determine the relative importance of variables and risks. Certain key components in completion of the project should be taken into account such as technology, research team, expert teams (personnel that have a good knowledge of this industry), and choosing the right spot where the wind farms will be located. The objective of this paper is to present the variables encountered in wind power project and to highlight the risks that must be controlled by the project developers, project team, supply chain actors, manufacturers, and all the stockholders involved in successful completion of a project.

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Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects: The case of onshore and offshore wind parks

Cited by 170 publications

References 21 publications

Inter-annual variability of wind climates and wind turbine annual energy production

Inter-annual variability of wind climates and wind turbine annual energy production

Risk Mitigation Strategies in Innovative Projects

Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Off-Shore Wind Energy Project’s Risks

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