Risk-supported case-based reasoning approach for cost overrun estimation of water-related projects using machine learning

Abstract

PurposeThe present study aims to develop a risk-supported case-based reasoning (RS-CBR) approach for water-related projects by incorporating various uncertainties and risks in the revision step.Design/methodology/approachThe cases were extracted by studying 68 water-related projects. This research employs earned value management (EVM) factors to consider time and cost features and economic, natural, technical, and project risks to account for uncertainties and supervised learning models to estimate cost overrun. Time-series algorithms were also used to predict construction cost indexes (CCI) and model improvements in future forecasts. Outliers were deleted by the pre-processing process. Next, datasets were split into testing and training sets, and algorithms were implemented. The accuracy of different models was measured with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the normalized root mean square error (NRSME) criteria.FindingsThe findings show an improvement in the accuracy of predictions using datasets that consider uncertainties, and ensemble algorithms such as Random Forest and AdaBoost had higher accuracy. Also, among the single algorithms, the support vector regressor (SVR) with the sigmoid kernel outperformed the others.Originality/valueThis research is the first attempt to develop a case-based reasoning model based on various risks and uncertainties. The developed model has provided an approving overlap with machine learning models to predict cost overruns. The model has been implemented in collected water-related projects and results have been reported.