Risk screening methods for extreme heat: Implications for equity-oriented adaptation

Abstract

Morbidity and mortality impacts of extreme heat amplified by climate change will be unequally distributed among communities given pre-existing differences in socioeconomic, health, and environmental conditions. Many governments are interested in adaptation policies that target those especially vulnerable to the risks, but there are important questions about how to effectively identify and support communities most in need of heat adaptations. Here, we use an equity-oriented adaptation program from the state of California as a case study to evaluate the implications of the currently used environmental justice index (CalEnviroScreen 3.0) for the identification of socially vulnerable communities with climate change adaptation needs. As CalEnviroScreen is geared towards air and water pollution, we assess how community heat risks and adaptation needs would be evaluated differently under two more adaptation-relevant vulnerability indices: the Social Vulnerability Index and the Heat-Health Action Index. Our analysis considers communities at the census tract scale, as well as the patterns emerging at the regional scale. Using the current index, the state designates 25% of its census tracts as “disadvantaged” communities eligible for special adaptation funds. However, an additional 12.6% of the state’s communities could be considered vulnerable if the two other indices were considered instead. Only 13.4% of communities are vulnerable across all three vulnerability indices studied. Choice of vulnerability index shapes statewide trends in extreme heat risk and is linked to a community’s likelihood of receiving heat-related California Climate Investments (CCI) projects. Tracts that are vulnerable under the current pollution-focused index, but not under the heat-health specific index, received four times the number of heat-related interventions as tracts vulnerable under the reverse scenario. This study demonstrates important nuances relevant to implementing equity-oriented adaptation and explores the challenges, trade-offs, and opportunities in quantifying vulnerability.

Temperature sensitive electricity demand and policy implications for energy transition: a case study of Florida, USA

“…Lastly, climate change is also associated with more frequent extreme heat conditions (Turek-Hankins et al, 2020). By 2050, Florida will be needing electricity at 50%−60% higher than the current demand level.…”

Public health: a forgotten piece of the adaptation law puzzle

“…It may require differentiated policies to protect vulnerable individual and groups. Health equity is crucial for effective adaptation to urban heat to protect the vulnerable (Turek-Hankins et al, 2020;IPCC, 2023). Applying health equity in law can help safeguard vulnerable populations and allocate resources according to need.…”

Cap. 18: Interacciones sectoriales, factores de estrés múltiples y sistemas complejos. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima.

“…En consecuencia, la vulnerabilidad acumulativa de las personas únicamente se puede comprender y abordar a través de múltiples escalas de análisis (p. ej., Turek-Hankins et al 2020 86 ) y mediante estrategias integradas de vivienda, planificación, servicios sociales, préstamos y justicia racial.…”

“…En primer lugar, existe un amplio consenso en la literatura sobre el hecho de que el cambio climático impactará de forma desproporcionada grupos ya sobrecargados (declaración 1), como se ha evaluado recientemente en el exhaustivo Sexto Informe de Evaluación del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático, Grupo de Trabajo II 69 . En segundo lugar, múltiples estudios con un alto grado de acuerdo entre ellos han documentado la falta de dinámica social y política en los modelos de sistemas complejos y las limitaciones derivadas del aislamiento sectorial, regional y jurisdiccional y disciplinarios de las evaluaciones de vulnerabilidad y riesgo (declaración 2) 3,86,87,88,89,90,242 . Algunos análisis de sistemas complejos han dado los primeros pasos en la incorporación de dinámicas sociales y políticas (p.…”