Risk Propagation Model and Simulation of an Assembled Building Supply Chain Network

Abstract

In recent years, the prefabricated building supply chain has received strong support from the government and has developed rapidly, but there are various risks in the operation process. In this paper, on the basis of considering asymptomatic infections and relapse, this paper establishes a risk transmission model that considers a recurrent Susceptible–Exposed–Asymptomatic–Infectious–Recovered (abbr. SEAIR) model, systematically analyses the risks in the supply chain, and calculates the risk balance point to conclude that the risks can exist in the supply chain for a long time. By drawing a causal circuit diagram, the relationship between the influencing factors in the process of risk transmission is found, establishing a stock flow map to explore the law of risk propagation. The simulation results using Vensim PLE software show that the five influencing factors of infection rate, transmission rate, government financial support, government policy supervision, and immunity loss ratio have an important impact on the number of risk-unknown enterprises, risk-latent enterprises, risk transmission enterprises, and infection rehabilitation enterprises in risk transmission, and relevant countermeasures to deal with risk transmission in the supply chain are proposed. Theoretically, this paper broadens the ideas for improving infectious disease models. From the management point of view, it reveals how the prefabricated building supply chain enables enterprises to improve their ability to deal with risks through the risk propagation model, providing reference and helping to manage the risks faced by the prefabricated building supply chain.

Study on the Mechanism of Safety Risk Propagation in Subway Construction Projects

“…Wang established a risk propagation model that considered a recurrent Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (abbr. SEAIR) model based on considering asymptomatic infections and relapse, systematically analyzing the risks in the supply chain and calculating the risk equilibrium point to find that the risks can exist in the supply chain for a long period [28]. Previous studies have investigated the improvement of infectious disease modeling and its application in different fields from different perspectives, and many research results have been achieved.…”

Tradition and Innovation in Construction Project Management

“…Notably, risk management emerges as a prominent theme, with Y. Wang et al [10] developing a risk propagation model for an assembled building supply chain network. Bahamid et al [20] summarized risk management strategies in Yemeni building projects.…”