Risk Perception Influence on Vaccination Program on COVID-19 in Chile: A Mathematical Model

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 virus emergency prompted unprecedented safety measures, which were accepted by the population of each country to different degrees, for example, with more or less willingness to use personal protective elements (PPEs). We have developed a mathematical model of the contagion process, based on chilean data, to assess the interaction between biological factors (such as the impact of vaccination) and behavioral factors (such as the population’s perception of risk). The model clearly shows that the virus spreads through three waves of contagion, the second being the most prominent, regardless of any alteration in the variables taken into account, which only affect the overall number of people infected. By considering alternative values of the risk perception variable and examining the different possible scenarios, we have also found that the less reaction to change the population has (and the lower the disposition to use PPEs), the higher the waves of contagion and the death toll are.

Modeling a traffic light warning system for acute respiratory infections

“…Risk perception has been explored in the literature. Gutierrez-Jara et al [7] and Lin et al [6] have published models for covid incorporating different metrics of risk description in their formulation, but with different algebraic structure and aims, compared to ours. In [7], a model is developed to assess the interaction between vaccination and perception of risk concluding that the highest waves of COVID-19 contagion in Chile were related to the risk perception of people.…”

“…or study the effect of risk perception on disease dynamics [e.g. [4][5][6][7][8] that have attempted to answer this question. In [4], geolocalized risk information for COVID-19 is used that gives the probability of finding, at time 𝑡, at least one infected person in an event of 𝑘 individuals via a binomial assumption of homogeneous risk; [5] revises the 1918 influenza pandemic for which a basic mathematical model is constructed that through a time-dependent transmission contact rate, simulates schools openings and closures, temperature changes, and also changes in human behavior.…”

“…In particular, changes in human behavior are formulated through risk perception to reported deaths by the disease. In [7] a mathematical model to explore COVID-19 dynamics in Chile is presented. This model includes vaccination dynamics and two perception risk variables, for the unvaccinated and vaccinated population respectively.…”

Collateral Effects of Insecticide-Treated Nets on Human and Environmental Safety in an Epidemiological Model for Malaria with Human Risk Perception

“…Finally, it is also worth mentioning that including people’s risk perception or behavior within disease modeling is a dynamic aspect to consider in future work. This behavioral aspect alters the dynamics of different diseases [ 51 , 52 , 53 , 70 , 71 ], as well as the effects on health after exposure to pesticides [ 25 ], allowing us to study through mathematical models the impact of prevention and mitigation campaigns considering individuals’ awareness.…”

“…The transmission rate is defined as where is the natural transmission rate, is the ITN coverage, and is a variable representing risk perception of humans to malaria disease, such that an increase in risk perception from a natural risk perception to malaria, , results in a reduction of the transmission rate. The dynamics of this risk variable are determined by the following differential equation, as in [ 25 , 51 , 52 , 53 ]: where represents resistance to change and represents the velocity of reaction to the presence of disease. We observe that individuals increase their risk perception to malaria when there is an increase in the number of infectious individuals.…”