Risk perception at a persistently active volcano: warnings and trust at Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico, 2012–2014

Abstract

This paper presents data from an online survey carried out in Mexico from 2012 to 2014. The survey focussed on the risk to Mexico City from Popocatépetl, an active volcano 60 km from the city. During the time period, volcanic activity was variable, and the alert level changed accordingly. The survey showed that people surveyed at the higher alert level were generally more concerned about the volcano. Since these people were measured separately from those who responded at the lower alert level and yet self-reported on the same scale as more concerned, this provides a useful indicator that the raised alert level may be associated with higher risk perception, and that alert level systems act as boundary objects in the translation of scientific information. In general, trust in various groups was most strongly explained by the perceived knowledge of the groups, followed by their perceived motivation (whether or not they are viewed as working in society's interest), with accuracy a tertiary concern. Some respondents were anxious about false alarms-these people also tended to be concerned about scientific accuracy while those who favoured precaution tended to be more trusting. The perceived effectiveness of warning and evacuation plans was also a significant predictor for trust in official groups. In general, the results suggest that there are important links between trust, warning plans and the perceived motivation of particular groups as well as between trust and perceived knowledge.

The human dimension of early warning – a viewpoint

“…a people-centered early warning), while contrasting that with other cases including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 where the warning came late and in an ambiguous form (Fussell, 2006 cited in Villagrán de León, 2014). Frequent false alarms are a major factor in denting that trust or could cause confusion when the alarm is issued (Chang Seng, 2010; Donovan et al , 2018). Reportedly, six of the 18 tsunami warnings that BMKG has issued since 2008 have been false alarms (Emmett, 2018).…”

Towards a Semi-Quantitative Approach for Assessing Evacuation Scenarios in the Context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México—The Case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan

“…The last large-scale evacuation occurred in December 2000, including all settlements within a radius of 13 km from the main crater and even some remoter villages, resulting in more than 41,000 displaced people [1]. Evacuation planning was relevant from the organisational point of view, leading to the design and implementation of communicational strategies for advising people in case of imminent hazardous activity [2].…”

In my remembered country: what poetry tells us about the changing perceptions of volcanoes between the nineteenth and twenty-first centuries

“…The range of volcanic activity is broad (effusive to explosive), and so is the spectrum of feelings they inspire (from awe to fear). Certainly, they do not leave us indifferent (see for example Esperanza et al, 2008) tal in shaping effective scientific communication strategies, including in times of crises (see for example Nave et al, 2016;Donovan et al, 2018;Avvisati et al, 2019). These perceptions may in turn be affected by a variety of factors, including scientific knowledge, spiritual beliefs, oral history, and personal experience (direct or indirect), which vary widely in space and time across different cultures and historical periods.…”

“…locally sourced) language to engage the communities in conversation. It is in fact critical that local cultural and religious beliefs be taken into account when communicating volcanic hazard, as demonstrated by several social volcanology studies (Cashman and Cronin, 2008;Donovan, 2010;Lavigne et al, 2008;Paton et al, 2008). We encourage interested readers to get in contact with us for participation in the next stage of this research, in which we hope to broaden our analysis beyond the constraints of the English language.…”