Risk of Developing Dementia at Older Ages in the United States

Fishman, Ezra

doi:10.1007/s13524-017-0598-7

Cited by 41 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…For example, the lifetime risks for males at age 75 were 21.1% (range 11.2-34.8%) and 10.2% (95% CI, 7.9-12.5%) based on the multistate model and Framingham study, respectively. A possible explanation [26] for the lower risks in Framingham is that death rates were generally higher during the follow-up period of the Framingham Study (which was centered approximately around the year 1985) than U.S death rates in 2014 which was what was used in the multistate model. If death rates are higher, then lifetime risks of AD dementia will be lower.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If death rates are higher, then lifetime risks of AD dementia will be lower. Table 5 also shows lifetime risks for all-cause dementia based on data from the Rotterdam study [24] and the ADAMS study [26]. The lifetime risks of all-cause dementia from these studies are higher than that for AD dementia from either the multistate model or Framingham Study.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, in order to make comparisons we needed to calculate weighted averages of our multistate model lifetime risk estimates averaging over the six preclinical and clinical disease states where the weights were based on the prevalence rates of each of the states by age and gender (see Supplementary Material). We also compared these estimates with lifetime risks for all-cause dementia from three studies: a study [24] using data from the Rotterdam Study which is a community based prospective cohort study in the Netherlands [25]; a study [26] using data from the Aging Demographics and Memory Study (ADAMS) which is a nationally representative U.S. longitudinal study [27]; and a study [28] using data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging [29]. Finally, we discuss results from studies that estimated the proportions of deaths in the United States either attributable to AD dementia or with AD dementia present at death [30, 31] in relation to the lifetime risk estimates reported here.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease

Brookmeyer¹,

Abdalla²

2018

Alzheimer's & Dementia

112

105

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease

Brookmeyer¹,

Abdalla²

2018

Alzheimer's & Dementia

112

105

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show abstract

“…See Plassman et al (2007) Alzheimer's Disease. Finally, combining information from the ADAMS and the HRS mortality tracking data, Fishman (2017) estimates the probability that a dementia-free person will develop dementia later in life for several starting ages (from 70 to 100 at intervals of five years) and for two cohorts of ADAMS participants (the 1920 and 1940 cohorts). These estimates range between 24.4% (SE = 7.2%) and 37.4% (SE = 3.8%).…”

Section: Magnitudes Of Subjective Probabilities Of Developing Dementiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-onset Dementia

Giustinelli¹,

Manski²,

Molinari³

2019

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We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia in the Health and Retirement Study. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Respondents quantify imprecision using probability intervals. Nearly half of respondents hold imprecise dementia probabilities, while almost a third of precise-probability respondents round their reports. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and novel evidence about imprecise probabilities in a nationally-representative sample. We show, in a specific framework, that failing to account for imprecise or rounded probabilities can yield incorrect predictions of long-term care insurance purchase decisions.currently incurable, that affects millions of Americans every year. In 2018, 5 to 6 million Americans were estimated to live with ADRD, the large majority over 65 years old (Alzheimer's Association, 2018). 6 ADRD is one of the top-10 causes of death in the United States. In 2017, it ranked 6 th overall, 5 th among the over 65, and 3 rd among the over 85 (Heron, 2019). Furthermore, ADRD has been estimated to impose a high economic burden on households and government programs due to the associated need for prolonged specialized care by the sick (Hurd et al., 2013).Important economic decisions of older individuals can potentially be affected by their perceptions of dementia risk, including precautionary savings choices, the timing of retirement, and the purchase of long-term care insurance.Producing reliable forecasts of the future prevalence of dementia has proved challenging, as forecasts are sensitive to the historical data and modelling assumptions used (Hudomiet, Hurd and Rohwedder, 2018). Nevertheless, most forecasts agree that the prevalence of the illness will grow with the increasing size and proportion of the U.S. population over 65, also due to improved rates of early detection, treatment, and prevention of major causes of death other than dementia. If this is correct, the already high demand for LTC services such as nursing homes will rise. Current statistics indicate that over 40% of residents in long-term care facilities haveAlzheimer's Disease and over 70% have some cognitive condition (National Center for Health Statistics, 2013). Recent economic literature using the HRS has found a strong link between the decision to buy LTC insurance and people's subjective probabilities of moving to a nursing home (e.g., Finkelstein and McGarry (2006)). However, to the best of our knowledge, nothing is known about people's beliefs of developing dementia as they age, or about how these beliefs are related to LTC decisions and outcomes. This data gap motivated our choice of measuring respondents' subjective probabilities of developing dementia in the future.When thinking about elicitation of perceptions for dementia risk, it is important to recognize that, in general, available research on the prevalence of dementia does not provide evidence on th...

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“…These findings suggest that there are pathophysiological or biochemical events “upstream” of neuropathologies that are causative to both neuropathology and reduced clinical function and which represent early preclinical stages of neurodegenerative diseases [4]. Indeed, the prevalence of dementia of persons living until age 90 years is over 38% [5]. Such a large disease penetrance suggests that there is a common, generalized mechanism underlying neurodegeneration and that the environmental and genetic variance in the human population merely tinkers with the timing of the inevitable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plasmalogen deficiency and neuropathology in Alzheimer's disease: Causation or coincidence?

Senanayake¹,

Goodenowe²

2019

A&D Transl Res & Clin Interv

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Causation of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is not well understood. It is necessary to look beyond neuropathology to identify the underlying causes of AD and many other common neurological diseases. Lipid abnormalities are well documented in the preclinical phases of many neurological diseases including AD. Here, we use AD as an example to examine the role of lipid abnormalities as an underlying cause of neurodegeneration. Role of lipids, particularly phospholipids, in the optimal function of the nervous system, impact of the aberrations of phospholipid metabolism on β‐amyloid deposition and cholinergic neuronal function, epidemiological evidence on the association of phospholipids with AD, and preliminary data on the possible modulation of risk factors of AD by phospholipids are examined. Implications of these findings on diagnosis and prevention are also discussed.

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Risk of Developing Dementia at Older Ages in the United States

Cited by 41 publications

References 53 publications

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease

Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response on Late-onset Dementia

Plasmalogen deficiency and neuropathology in Alzheimer's disease: Causation or coincidence?

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