Risk maps for Antarctic krill under projected Southern Ocean acidification

Kawaguchi, So; Ishida, Akio; King, Robert A.; Raymond, Ben; Waller, Natasha; Constable, Andrew J.; Nicol, Stephen; Wakita, Masashi; Ishimatsu, Atsushi

doi:10.1038/nclimate1937

Cited by 156 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…11,106 . Ocean acidification is already affecting calcified organisms 107 , and may influence krill via impacts on eggs 108 . Although records of marine invasive species are uncommon, introductions, such as of crabs, may pose considerable threats to local communities 88 .…”

Section: Outlook and Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing form of Antarctic biodiversity

Chown

Clarke

Fraser

et al. 2015

Nature

261

210

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Antarctic biodiversity is much more extensive, ecologically diverse and biogeographically structured than previously thought. Understanding of how this diversity is distributed in marine and terrestrial systems, the mechanisms underlying its spatial variation, and the significance of the microbiota is growing rapidly. Broadly recognizable drivers of diversity variation include energy availability and historical refugia. The impacts of local human activities and global environmental change nonetheless pose challenges to current and future understanding of Antarctic biodiversity. Life in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean is surprisingly rich, and as much at risk from environmental change as it is elsewhere.The past two decades have witnessed a revolution in the approaches used to document patterns in and the functional significance of the diversity of life. Knowledge of the global distributions of organisms now extends to many groups. These include terrestrial plants and animals 1 , marine taxa 2 , components of the soil biota 3 , and, increasingly, microorganisms 4 .2 Empirical and theoretical research is verifying the range of mechanisms, including energy and nutrient availability, and historical contingency, that are responsible for these patterns 1,2 , and the role of diversity in maintaining ecosystem services. New approaches are also revealing rapid changes in diversity across most ecosystems, their often negative implications for the future of the planet, and our struggle to address the problem 5 .In tandem, biodiversity research has surged across the Antarctic and Southern Ocean.In part the increasing interest has been driven by the realization that any fundamental quest to understand life's diversity requires exploration of the polar regions 6,7 . But it has also been underpinned by a growing appreciation of the particular challenges faced by Antarctic species and ecosystems. Climate change 8 , and economic activity in the form of fishing, tourism, and scientific research itself 9,10 are all having impacts on Antarctic diversity. The intricacy of Southern Ocean food webs, best known for the region's iconic seals, penguins, whales and albatrosses, has been further unveiled, so highlighting the complexity of the simultaneous impacts of changing climates, sea ice distribution and fisheries on this system 11,12 . New marine research has also exposed unexpectedly high benthic diversity, including in the deep sea 13,14 . In terrestrial areas, the diversity of higher plants and animals is relatively low (e.g., just two flowering plant species), but the diversity of lichens, bryophytes, invertebrates, and the microbiota is substantial 15 . Local and regional spatial patterning in these groups is extensive 16 , with the mechanisms underlying these patterns both recognizable from broader ecological theory and unusual in several respects.Here we explore recent advances in our understanding of the biodiversity of the Antarctic. Given the many conservation challenges it faces, we also consider how well the region i...

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Section: Outlook and Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing form of Antarctic biodiversity

Chown

Clarke

Fraser

et al. 2015

Nature

261

210

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“…Relevant biological data are often patchy or imprecisely known, while effects are often indirect and multifaceted (Bednarek et al, 2011;Murphy et al, 2012;Melbourne-Thomas et al, 2013;Gutt et al, 2015). This makes the challenges of assessing future change even greater (Hill et al, 2013;Kawaguchi et al, 2013;Melbourne-Thomas et al, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

et al. 2017

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Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

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“…local extinctions and drastic changes in local ecosystem structure (Convey 2013). Kawaguchi et al 2013). For example, Anisimov et al 2007).…”

Section: !mentioning

confidence: 99%