Risk Management and the Precautionary Principle: A Fuzzy Logic Model

Abstract

The aim of this article is to illustrate a procedure for applying the precautionary principle within a strategy for reducing the possibility of underestimating the effective risk caused by a phenomenon, product, or process, and of adopting insufficient risk reduction measures or overlooking their need. We start by simply defining risk as the product between the numerical expression of the adverse consequences of an event and the likelihood of its occurrence or the likelihood that such consequences will occur. Uncertainty in likelihood estimates and several key concepts inherent to the precautionary principle, such as sufficient certainty, prevention, and desired level of protection, are represented as fuzzy sets. The strategy described may be viewed as a simplified example of a precautionary decision process that has been chiefly conceived as a theoretical contribution to the debate concerning the precautionary principle, the quantification of its application, and the formal approach to such problems.

Decision Analysis and Risk Models for Land Development Affecting Infrastructure Systems

“…( 13 ) and an explanation on the specific use of the method in risk analysis and likelihood elicitation can be found in Cameron and Peloso. ( 14 )…”

“…Further information about fuzzy-rule-based modeling can be found in literature by Bardossy et al (13) and an explanation on the specific use of the method in risk analysis and likelihood elicitation can be found in Cameron and Peloso. (14) This method enables analysts and experts to clearly communicate the relationships between factors and probabilities through direct if-then type statements. For example, a statement such as…”

A Proposed Mid-Holocene Age Definition for Hazardous Faults in California

“…Should adequate scientific information and professional judgment be insufficient, then the proposed ,4-ka to 6-ka age expresses a range of uncertainty. If accepted and applied by our profession, the age range intrinsically invokes the ''precautionary principle,'' namely, acting in a responsible manner despite lack of scientific certainty about a specific number for surface-fault rupture probability, extent, and effect (Raffensperger and Tickner, 1999;Anderson, 2001;and Cameron and Peloso, 2005). This implies that geologic judgments and decisions must be made, both by consultants and by reviewers.…”

A method for a precautionary assessment of aquifer vulnerability to pollution

“…An approach similar to the one described in this paper may be applied to the precautionary assessment of other risk factors, even where the uncertain quantity is the likelihood -say the probability -that an event will happen (Cameron and Peloso [4]); the extension of the method to the complete precautionary assessment of risk is currently under development.…”