OBJECTIVE -We sought to develop stroke risk equations for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes in Hong Kong.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS -A total of 7,209Hong Kong Chinese type 2 diabetic patients without a history of stroke at baseline were analyzed. The data were randomly and evenly divided into the training subsample and the test subsample. In the training subsample, stepwise Cox models were used to develop the risk equation. Validation of the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) stroke risk engine and the current stroke equation was performed in the test dataset. The life-table method was used to check calibration, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) was used to check discrimination.RESULTS -A total of 372 patients developed incident stroke during a median of 5.37 years (interquartile range 2.88 -7.78) of follow-up. Age, A1C, spot urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), and history of coronary heart disease (CHD) were independent predictors. The performance of the UKPDS stroke engine was suboptimal in our cohort. The newly developed risk equation defined by these four predictors had adequate performance in the test subsample. The predicted stroke-free probability by the current equation was within the 95% CI of the observed probability. The aROC was 0.77 for predicting stroke within 5 years. The risk score was computed as follows: 0.0634 ϫ age (years) ϩ 0.0897 ϫ A1C ϩ 0.5314 ϫ log 10 (ACR) (mg/mmol) ϩ 0.5636 ϫ history of CHD (1 if yes). The 5-year stroke probability can be calculated by: 1 Ϫ 0.9707 EXP (Risk Score Ϫ 4.5674) .CONCLUSIONS -Although the risk equation performed reasonably well in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, external validation is required in other populations.
Diabetes Care 30:65-70, 2007S troke is among the most common causes of death worldwide (1). Chinese individuals have a higher incidence of stroke and related mortality than Caucasians, as shown in the World Health Organization MONICA project (2). Diabetic patients have a two-to fivefold increased risk of stroke, in part due to interactions between multiple risk factors (3). The Framingham Study (4) and U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) (5) have developed risk equations based on data collected from the Caucasian community and diabetic patients. Although a stroke risk equation has been developed in a small cohort of Chinese men recruited from a workforce (6), there is currently no risk equation applicable to Chinese individuals with diabetes, despite this number being projected to 42.3 million by 2030 (7). In this study, we validate and develop stroke risk equations to predict first stroke in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients based on data from the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-Since 1995, all newly referred diabetic patients to the Prince of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong underwent comprehensive assessments of complications and risk factors based on the European DiabCare protocol (7a). Patients with hospital admissions within 6 -8 weeks before assessment accounted for...