Risk Evaluation on China Government Bonds with EWMAVaR and SVM Methods

Abstract

This research studies the strategy of risk evaluation of China government bonds with the latest data. The angle of evaluation focuses on the interest rate and the stability risk, employing the EWMAVaR and SVM methods. The weights of each risk indicator are determined by the entropy method. Experimental results show that the risk of government bonds is stable in recent years. However, the impact of COVID-19 cannot be ignored because the risk level increased in the year 2020. The issuing of one trillion special antipandemic bonds could explain the fluctuation of the market because the fiscal incomes of Chinese government decreased in 2020 and could not be recovered in a short time. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a better performance than the existing methods, and it can help well in realizing the risk assessment of government bonds.

The Transmissive Effect of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Hike on China's Government Bond Yields in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…However, as people advance to 2022 and beyond, a noticeable hike brings the rate to 1.75%, marking the most aggressive rate hike since 1994. This is a significant policy response, possibly indicating the Federal Reserve's intention to curb inflationary pressures or a reflection of the economy's resilience and recovery post-pandemic [7].…”

Retracted: Risk Evaluation on China Government Bonds with EWMAVaR and SVM Methods

“…Tis article has been retracted by Hindawi, as publisher, following an investigation undertaken by the publisher [1]. Tis investigation has uncovered evidence of systematic manipulation of the publication and peer-review process.…”