Welcome to summer. As we have done in the past, there will be no Topic Update this month. We will return in August to our usual format. Instead, I have decided to write about something that has been on my mind lately-the concept of causality. I have chosen this subject because there is considerable confusion these days in the media about what is fact and what is myth or false belief. Even when there is a growing consensus about causality, there may still be doubt about when things will happen, how often they will happen, or their relevance to one's life. Recently, some colleagues and I met to discuss possible contributions from cognitive computing and analyses of so-called big data sets to drug development and safety assessment. As I thought about what could be gleaned from comprehensive pondering, I began to wonder about the sources of bias that might enter into such efforts. These days, many of us are aware of the limitations of political polling. Both selection (sampling) and reporting bias may influence these polls. Similarly, sampling issues and bias may be important when studying drug safety. For example, how are the data from patients' claims on the internet or from published case reports taken into account? I know from personal discussions that many clinicians who encounter an interesting or unusual adverse event choose to try to publish an article about it rather than report it to the product's manufacturer or to the US Food and Drug Administration via a Form 3500. With the proliferation of online journals, and to a lesser extent print journals, a vast amount of untapped, sometimes unrefereed, and, in many instances, unverifiable information from clinical trials and case reports probably exists. Would these additional data sources in any way modify what we now conclude from data gathered from spontaneous reports to manufacturers, Forms 3500, clinical trials, and preclinical animal studies? I was once taught that if you presented study patients with a checklist of possible adverse effects, they were more likely to identify effects that they would not mention if just asked if they had experienced any problems. In this era of direct to consumer advertising, how do those quickly aired disclosures about rare but dangerous adverse effects affect what patients report to their doctors? I know several people who, when they see these advertisements, are reluctant to accept their clinician's advice that these medications may be useful for them. My thoughts about causality then shifted to the subject of climate change. Most polls suggest that the majority of those polled believe that the planet is warming, and many believe that humans are the cause. 1,2 How do people develop their ideas about climate change? Is it from the classroom, the radio, television, magazines, or newspapers? Some people may be influenced by the teachings of their ministers. What would we learn if we could scan into a database all sermons, all newspaper columns (including op-eds), and all relevant magazine articles? Could we identify groups of...