Risk-driven statistical modeling for hurricane-induced compound events: Design event implementation for industrial areas subjected to coastal floods and winds

Lan, Meng; Gardoni, Paolo; Luo, Ruiyu; Zhu, Jianqin; Lo, Siuming

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.111159

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Traditional flood risk estimation relies on univariate flood frequency analysis [17,18]. The link between percentiles and non-exceedance opportunities (return periods) can be determined with this analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound Impact of Storm Surge and Flood Characteristics in Coastal Area Based on Copula

Zhu,

Zhang,

Zhu

2024

Water

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In low-lying coastal areas, the interplay of various factors including precipitation, river flow, and storm surge can lead to greater influence on floods when they occur simultaneously. The copula method was used in this study to investigate the bivariate flood risk of compounding storm surge and river discharge events in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Our results indicate that while the correlation between storm surge and flood peak (S-Q) was weak, there was a strong dependence between the pairs of storm surge–flood volume (S-V) and storm surge–flood duration (S-D). For these three pairs, the Clayton copula was the optimal function for S-Q, while the Frank copula was the optimal function for S-V and S-D, respectively. When the flood volume exceeds 2.0 × 104 m3/s and the flood duration is more than 10 days, the bivariate hydrologic risk for S-V and S-D is observed to decrease rapidly. Furthermore, the failure probability (FP) would be underestimated when the combined impact of river flow and storm surge is ignored in coastal flood risk assessment. Such bivariate hydrologic risk analysis implies that when determining design values in coastal flood risk assessment, the combined impact of river flow and storm surge should be taken into account.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound Impact of Storm Surge and Flood Characteristics in Coastal Area Based on Copula

Zhu,

Zhang,

Zhu

2024

Water

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“…However, even assuming an exact correspondence between the return period of the drivers and response, using a single design event prevents a full characterization of the along‐river levels associated with a bivariate return period. For instance, the “most‐likely” event may not be the return level event that elicits the most extreme response (Lan et al., 2022), here the event that produces the highest along‐river levels, potentially leading to under design and under estimation of flood risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hybrid Framework for Rapidly Locating Transition Zones: A Comparison of Event‐ and Response‐Based Return Water Levels in the Suwannee River FL

Jane

MALAGÓN-SANTOS

Rashid

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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Transition zones are stretches of river where extreme water levels can arise through the interaction of multiple drivers such as elevated river discharge, storm surge, and high tide (Bilskie & Hagen, 2018). Transition zones are likely to exist along rivers throughout the world and tend to be most dramatically revealed during catastrophic flood events, such as Hurricane Harvey (2017) where coincident heavy rainfall and surge flooded Houston and the surrounding area (Stephens et al., 2022;Valle-Levinson et al., 2020). In January 2012, elevated inland water levels triggered precautionary evacuations in the northern Netherlands, as storm surges blocked gravity-driven

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Copula-based joint tropical cyclone-induced wind and wave risk analysis: considering the effect of uncertainty using Bayesian inference

Wen,

Wang,

Wan

et al. 2024

Nat Hazards

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Risk-driven statistical modeling for hurricane-induced compound events: Design event implementation for industrial areas subjected to coastal floods and winds

Cited by 7 publications

References 59 publications

Compound Impact of Storm Surge and Flood Characteristics in Coastal Area Based on Copula

Compound Impact of Storm Surge and Flood Characteristics in Coastal Area Based on Copula

A Hybrid Framework for Rapidly Locating Transition Zones: A Comparison of Event‐ and Response‐Based Return Water Levels in the Suwannee River FL

Copula-based joint tropical cyclone-induced wind and wave risk analysis: considering the effect of uncertainty using Bayesian inference

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