Risk assessment through multivariate analysis on the magnitude and occurrence date of daily storm events in the Shenzhen bay area

Han, Jing‐Cheng; Zhou, Yang; Huang, Yuefei; Wu, Xiaofeng; Liu, Zhe; Wang, Yongqiang

doi:10.1007/s00477-020-01793-1

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Next, we analyse the dependence between drought onset, a circular variable and the deficit volume, typically a linear variable. The non‐linear dependence pattern between hydrological extremes and their associated attributes has been recently proposed in the literature for assessing multivariate risk, for example, assessing coincident flood risk considering flood timing and its severity measures, such as magnitude and duration (Han et al, 2020; Muthuvel & Mahesha, 2021). However, no such efforts are available so far to analyse the association between drought onset and severity across peninsular river basins in India; which can enhance the predictability of extreme droughts.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow drought onset and severity explained by non‐linear responses between climate‐catchment and land surface processes

Raut,

Ganguli,

Kumar

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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Knowledge of drought onset and its relationship with drought severity (deficit volume) is crucial for providing timely information for reservoir operations, irrigation scheduling, devising cropping choices and patterns and managing surface and groundwater water resources. An analysis of the relationship between drought onset timing and deficit volume can help in drought hazard assessments and associated risks. Despite its importance, little attention has been paid to understand the drought onset timing and its potential linkage with deficit volume for effective drought monitoring and its impact assessment. Further, only a few studies have explored the role of environmental controls, encompassing the interaction between climate, catchment and land‐surface processes in influencing streamflow droughts and associated characteristics such as onset time and severity. This study leverages quality‐controlled streamflow observations from 1965 to 2018 to unveil regional patterns of streamflow drought onset, at‐site trends in deficit volume and detect non‐linear relationships between onset timing and deficit volume across 82 rain‐fed catchments in peninsular India (8°–24° N, 72°–87° E). We show that around 12% of catchments show an earlier onset of streamflow droughts in conjunction with a decreasing trend in deficit volume. Further, approximately one‐third of the catchments show a significant non‐linear dependency between drought deficit volume and onset time. Among catchment controls, such as soil and topographic properties, we found soil organic carbon stock and stock as dominant drivers controlling the streamflow drought onset time. Likewise, sand content and vertical distance to channel network control the streamflow deficit volume. Finally, the linkages between inferred dominant low‐flow generation mechanisms and the specific combinations of environmental controls are synthesized in a conceptual diagram that might assist in developing appropriate models for low‐flow simulations and predictions, especially across ungauged sites. The new insights add value to understanding the chain of physical processes linking climatic and physiographic controls on streamflow droughts, which can support drought forecasting and climate impact assessment efforts.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow drought onset and severity explained by non‐linear responses between climate‐catchment and land surface processes

Raut,

Ganguli,

Kumar

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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“…Flood risk studies including seasonal variability have to date typically only considered a single flood driver, such as discharge (Förster et al., 2008; Klaus et al., 2016). Studies that have considered multiple drivers and their potential dependence have usually tended to focus on one generating mechanism, ignoring a potential second flood season (Apel et al., 2016; Du et al., 2020; Han et al., 2020; Lian et al., 2017; Tu et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2019, 2014; Yang & Qian, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Flood Risk Framework Capturing the Seasonality of and Dependence Between Rainfall and Sea Levels—An Application to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Couasnon

Scussolini

Tran

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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State‐of‐the‐art flood hazard maps in coastal cities are often obtained from simulating coastal or pluvial events separately. This method does not account for the seasonality of flood drivers and their mutual dependence. In this article, we include the impact of these two factors in a computationally efficient probabilistic framework for flood risk calculation, using Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) as a case study. HCMC can be flooded subannually by high tide, rainfall, and storm surge events or a combination thereof during the monsoon or tropical cyclones. Using long gauge observations, we stochastically model 10,000 years of rainfall and sea level events based on their monthly distributions, dependence structure and cooccurrence rate. The impact from each stochastic event is then obtained from a damage function built from selected rainfall and sea level combinations, leading to an expected annual damage (EAD) of $1.02 B (95th annual damage percentile of $2.15 B). We find no dependence for most months and large differences in expected damage across months ($36–166 M) driven by the seasonality of rainfall and sea levels. Excluding monthly variability leads to a serious underestimation of the EAD by 72–83%. This is because high‐probability flood events, which can happen multiple times during the year and are properly captured by our framework, contribute the most to the EAD. This application illustrates the potential of our framework and advocates for the inclusion of flood drivers' dynamics in coastal risk assessments.

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“…Flood risk studies including seasonal variability have to date typically only considered a single flood driver, such as discharge (Forster et al, 2008;Klaus et al, 2016). Studies that have considered multiple drivers and their potential dependence have usually tended to focus on one generating mechanism, ignoring a potential second flood season (Apel et al, 2016;Du et al, 2020;Han et al, 2020;Lian et al, 2017;Tu et al, 2018;Xu et al, 2019;Xu et al, 2014;Yang & Qian, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of (in)dependence in flood risk assessments

Couasnon¹

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Flooding remains the most frequent natural hazard, affecting more people than any other weather-related disasters. The increase in frequency, duration and severity of floods in many parts of the world is projected to rise due to changes in climate, population and land use. Compound flooding, which occurs when multiple flood drivers interact to cause or exacerbate flooding, is a significant challenge in estuarine environments. However, the influence of flood drivers on compound flooding in estuaries remains poorly understood. To address this issue, the goal of this thesis is to improve flood risk assessments in estuarine environments by advancing our understanding and modelling of compound flood hazard. The thesis first identifies potential hotspots of compound flooding at the global scale by analyzing discharge and storm surge time series from state-of-the-art global models. The study is performed at 3,434 river mouths, encompassing all catchments along the coast with an upstream area larger than 1,000 km2. About 6% of the locations are classified as having the highest compound flooding potential. The results show that the dependence between river discharge and storm surge is significant in many areas, including the coasts of Madagascar, northern Morocco, northern Australia, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Furthermore, the study highlights the complex temporal dynamics between discharge and storm surge that cannot be captured by one indicator alone. Next, the thesis develops different probabilistic assessment methods to account for the dependence of flood drivers in flood risk assessment through two case studies. The first case study assesses the impact of the spatial dependence between river discharges and storm surge on the flood hazard quantification for a small catchment in Galveston Bay, Texas. The second case study expands the probabilistic assessment method into a computationally efficient probabilistic framework for calculating flood risk using Ho Chi Minh City as a case study. The framework allows for multiple dependence structures and is applied at a monthly time scale to account for seasonality. Lastly, the thesis moves beyond traditional expected annual damage (EAD) as the indicator of flood risk and discusses the many implications of spatial and temporal dynamics on disaster risk management. The development of plausible storylines and their impact on risk management decisions are explored within a serious game called Breaking the Silos. Breaking the Silos is a collaborative role-playing game designed to explore the impacts of these complexities on risk management decisions. Overall, the thesis provides important insights into the challenges of compound flooding in estuarine environments and proposes new methods to account for these challenges in flood risk assessments. The study highlights the need to include compound flooding in flood hazard assessments in locations where fluvial, pluvial, and coastal interactions are important. The thesis also emphasizes the need for disaster management measures to consider the spatial and temporal dynamics between hazards and their impact on residual risk.

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Risk assessment through multivariate analysis on the magnitude and occurrence date of daily storm events in the Shenzhen bay area

Cited by 8 publications

References 37 publications

Streamflow drought onset and severity explained by non‐linear responses between climate‐catchment and land surface processes

Streamflow drought onset and severity explained by non‐linear responses between climate‐catchment and land surface processes

A Flood Risk Framework Capturing the Seasonality of and Dependence Between Rainfall and Sea Levels—An Application to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

The role of (in)dependence in flood risk assessments

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