Risk assessment of Tunguska-type airbursts

Abstract

The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a remote region of Central Siberia in 1908, is a classic example of extraterrestrial encounter discussed in the asteroid/comet impact hazard and risk assessment literature (e.g. Longo 2007;Carusi et al. 2007). Although it is generally agreed that the cosmic body caused damage by bursting in the air rather than through direct impact on the Earth's surface, the Tunguska event is often referred to as an impact event. To the best of our knowledge, no detailed studies have been performed to quantify the risk of a similarsized event over a populated region. We propose here a straightforward probabilistic risk model for Tunguska-type events over the continental United States and use established risk metrics to determine the property (buildings and contents) and human losses. We find an annual average property loss of *USD 200,000/year, a rate of *0.3 fatalities/year and *1.0 injuries/year ranging from a factor 3 below and to a factor 3 above the indicated values when a reasonable rate uncertainty for Tunguska-type events is taken into account. We then illustrate the case of an extreme event over the New York metropolitan area. While we estimate that this ''nightmare'' scenario would lead to *USD 1.5 trillion of property loss, *3.9 millions of fatalities and *4.7 millions of injuries, such event is almost impossible (occurrence once every *30 million years) and should only be considered as an illustrative example.

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

“…3.1.3 for a variable l). Equation 3 is well suited to describe the typical S-shaped vulnerability curve used in damage assessment for earthquakes (Fabbrocino et al 2005), volcanic eruptions (Spence et al 2005;Zuccaro et al 2008), winds (Wehner et al 2010), fluvial floods (Reese and Ramsay 2010), tsunamis (Srivihok et al 2012) or asteroid impacts (Mignan et al 2011). In the present case, we consider a single-damage state, which is an oversimplification compared to standard risk assessment.…”

Exploring the Space of Possibilities in Cascading Disasters with Catastrophe Dynamics

“…187–188); “ Lockdown and social distancing measures to prevent spread of COVID-19 have heightened fears of increased levels of domestic violence ” [ 15 ] (p. 190); “ Concerns regarding potential neurological complications of COVID-19 are being increasingly reported [...] 39 (31%) of 125 patients presented with altered mental status ” [ 63 ] (p. 1). 1908 Tunguska airburst, Russia: “ large fires were ignited near ground zero [...] and spread outward ” [ 37 ] (p. 871); “ hazard is due to hurricane-force winds [maximum wind speed of 502 mph, 163 mph, and 70 mph for an overpressure of 50, 5, and 2 psi, respectively]” [ 37 ] (p. 873) 1989 geomagnetic storm, Canada: “ The power blackout due to the March 1989 magnetic storm caused direct costs of tens of millions of dollars to Hydro-Québec because of damage to equipment and loss of sales. However, estimates of lost GDP for Québec are many times that ” [ 36 ] (p. 549).…”

Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach

“…Mignan et al . consider the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, and the hypothetical consequences of a similar one if it were to happen over modern New York City . Such scenario analyses, while helpful in considering possible types of consequences, do not provide estimates of their probabilities of occurrence.…”

“…Mignan et al consider the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, and the hypothetical consequences of a similar one if it were to happen over modern New York City. (9) Such scenario analyses, while helpful in considering possible types of consequences, do not provide estimates of their probabilities of occurrence. The NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) maintains a database of asteroid observations, along with estimated probabilities and dates of impact, as part of the NEO Program.…”