Risk assessment of the Istanbul Strait by using Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) method

Şahin, Bekir; Chan, Yupo

doi:10.5505/pajes.2017.45762

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…PAWSA, an assessment model developed in the United States to ensure maritime traffic safety in waterways, uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) developed by Dr. Jack Harrald of George Washington University and Jason Merrick of Virginia Commonwealth University [16,17].…”

Section: Maritime Traffic Safety Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Accident Reduction Rate after Maritime Traffic Safety Assessment Using Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique and Machine Learning Algorithm

Won,

Lim,

Kang

2024

Applied Sciences

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This study was focused on deriving the MTSA-related accident reduction rate (ARR) required to calculate the safety benefits before and after expanding the scope of the system. By performing spatial analysis using geographic information system technology, MTSA-related accidents were identified on maritime routes near both assessed and unassessed project sites from 2010 to 2014. Subsequently, by applying the synthetic minority oversampling technique to balance the data, the algorithm learned from the random forest using the operational data of coastal passenger ship operations and accident data near unassessed locations where MTSA is not implemented. Then, the trained model was applied to predict accident occurrence in the absence of MTSA near the latest operational information of coastal passenger ship operations at the assessed project sites. The MTSA-related ARR was then calculated by applying the actual accident occurrences during operation near the assessed project sites where MTSA was implemented. The MTSA-marine ARR calculated at 17.41% can be applied to the calculation of safety benefit for MTSA. The results of this study can provide quantitative evidence for the application of higher-level systems considering the burden on regulatory targets when improving MTSA or similar systems.

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Section: Maritime Traffic Safety Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Accident Reduction Rate after Maritime Traffic Safety Assessment Using Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique and Machine Learning Algorithm

Won,

Lim,

Kang

2024

Applied Sciences

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“…Moreover, such analysis will take necessary measures from the point of their emergence to the point of losses and consequences that they might bring with them. Several such studies have been conducted in the past with different outlooks ranging from transportation [7][8][9][10][11], political factors [12][13][14][15][16], and human factors [17][18][19][20]. Hence, a need was created to study and analyze all such factors together considering current circumstances and world order to mitigate the newly evolved hazards in the MCSC.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Risk Factors Influencing the Safety of Maritime Containers Supply Chain: In the Period of the Pandemic

et al. 2023

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Maritime security is facing many challenges due to war conflicts, geopolitics, sanctions, and pandemics. The supply chain for maritime containers has faced considerable obstacles as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous factors, such as port closures, travel restrictions, and a decreased workforce, have impacted the supply chain. The risk of cargo theft, piracy, and other security events has increased as a result of these difficulties. Therefore, it is essential to look at the risk variables that may affect the security of the marine container supply chain during the pandemic. This research paper highlights those risks through the following three indexes: the likelihood index (LI), severity index (SI), and average risk index (ARI) by analyzing 64 risk factors that were prepared and designed by incorporating the Delphi expert survey technique to prepare a systematic questionnaire. The article addresses worries over the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on international supply networks. The causes of the most recent global shipping industry disruptions and their impact on supply chains have been thoroughly examined. In order to reduce the number of disruptions in global supply chains and lower the direct and indirect costs for consumers, the authors have also mentioned the necessary actions that must be implemented. The results concluded after the analysis pointed to “management activities,” such as human resources or the working environment as having the highest possibility of going wrong, whereas “operation activities” were judged to likely be the fatal ones if the security of maritime containers was ever compromised. The main objective of the study is to evaluate how the COVID-19 epidemic may affect international shipping, particularly container shipping, which is currently the most important link in the world’s multimodal land–sea supply chains.

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“…Uzmanlık katsayısının belirlenmesi yalnızca akademik makalelerde değil, uzman görüşlerine başvurulan araştırma projelerinde de söz konusu olmaktadır. Örneğin limanlar ve suyolları risk değerlendirme çalışmalarında uzmanlara uzmanlık durumlarına göre 1, 2 ve 3 dereceleri ile ağırlıklar atanmaktadır [32].…”

Section: Li̇teratür Taramasi (Literature Review)unclassified

Uzmanlık katsayılarının belirlenmesinde kullanılan farklı yaklaşımların geliştirilmiş bulanık analitik hiyerarşi süreci metodu üzerindeki etkilerinin analizi

Şahin¹,

Yazır²

2018

Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

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Prioritization concept of expert opinions  Improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process method  Moderator's assignments on the decision matrix Data for decision science are derived from several sources such as reports, databases, etc. Multicriteria decision making methods mostly depend on expert consultations. However, it is increasingly argued that using survey responses create nonconfidence, unreliability and doubtfulness. In this study, we point this problem by discussing the prioritization concept of expert opinions. Different approaches are applied on improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process method, and results are compared. Figure A. Different rankings after applying different approaches for expertise coefficients Purpose: The purpose of this study is to indicate the effects of four different approaches to the prioritization concept of expert opinions. Theory and Methods: In this study, improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process method as a decision making tool is preferred. Four different approaches are applied to analyze the observations. Results: We show that all data relevant to expertise of decision makers in decision making can be transferred to the decision-making methods. We prove that expert coefficients and the moderator's assignments on the decision matrix affect and change the results in a huge amount. Conclusion: The concept of expert prioritization should be considered by the researchers in the field of decision science comprehensively. New methods can be generated, and comparison studies are to be conducted.

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Risk assessment of the Istanbul Strait by using Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) method

Cited by 5 publications

References 26 publications

Estimating Accident Reduction Rate after Maritime Traffic Safety Assessment Using Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique and Machine Learning Algorithm

Estimating Accident Reduction Rate after Maritime Traffic Safety Assessment Using Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique and Machine Learning Algorithm

Investigation of Risk Factors Influencing the Safety of Maritime Containers Supply Chain: In the Period of the Pandemic

Uzmanlık katsayılarının belirlenmesinde kullanılan farklı yaklaşımların geliştirilmiş bulanık analitik hiyerarşi süreci metodu üzerindeki etkilerinin analizi

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