Risk Assessment of Operational Safety for Oil Tankers - A Revised Risk Matrix

Hsu, Wen‐Kai K.; Lian, Shu-Jun; Huang, Show‐Hui S.

doi:10.1017/s0373463316000941

Cited by 18 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(61 reference statements)

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“…At the same time, risk classification based on the ship types is another successful paradigm. In the existing literature, the risks involved in tankers are of concern mostly because serious damage, injuries, and environmental pollution are likely to be caused [10][11][12]. Additionally, the passenger ships are receiving much attention for the issue of maritime shipping risk analysis, such as in [13,14].…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management

Qiao

Liu

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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In contrast to the conventional safety management principle, namely, safety-I, which focuses on “what goes wrong”, a new-born safety philosophy (safety-II) inspires people to investigate “how and why things go right”. In the present study, the cognitive difference and correlation between safety-I and safety-II in the maritime shipping industry are explored and investigated. For this purpose, a questionnaire is administered to survey seafarers and maritime experts, and semi-structured interviews are conducted to collect original data associated with safety-I and safety-II. Then, the data from seafarers and maritime experts are further processed by empirical statistical methods and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology. The results show that impacting factors associated with individual aspects are usually accepted as dominant with respect to views of safety-I, while organizational factors are more influential for safety-II, which is essential to developing an organizational resilience capacity. Based on the findings and discussions, potential safety countermeasures that integrate safety-I and safety-II are proposed in this article. The present study discusses the new-born safety-II perspective to elucidate the safety issues associated with maritime shipping operations, which can be seen as the main innovation of this work.

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management

Qiao

Liu

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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“…A review of risk matrices presented in [34] proposed a risk classification method based on a two-dimensional discrete risk matrix. Similarly, Hsu et al [35] built on Equation (3) to propose a risk classification method based on a two-dimensional continuous risk matrix. However, there is little research related to a three-dimensional continuous risk matrix.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Improved Failure Risk Assessment Method for Bilge System of the Large Luxury Cruise Ship under Fire Accident Conditions

Liu

Guo

et al. 2021

JMSE

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This paper develops an improved failure risk assessment method and discusses the risk control measures for a large luxury cruise ship’s bilge system under fire accident conditions. The proposed method incorporates an expert weight calculation model and a risk coefficient calculation model. The expert weight calculation model considers the differences in experts’ expertise levels (i.e., qualification level, decision-making capacity, and decision-making preference). Further, the method integrates the evaluations resulting from fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and extended fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) of different experts. The risk coefficient (RC) calculation model utilizes a three-dimensional continuous matrix, serving to determine the risk factors’ ratings. The influences of the expert weight and RC calculation models on the proposed method’s performance are studied through a sensitivity analysis. The work demonstrates that the proposed method minimizes the issues encountered when using conventional methods for determining risk ratings. Finally, the results of an empirical study comprising ten experts evaluating the VISTA cruise ship’s bilge system prove the applicability of the proposed method and offer practical design guidelines to meet the regulations for Safe Return to Port (SRtP).

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“…A risk matrix displays the basic properties, "consequence" and "frequency" of an adverse risk factor and the aggregate notion of risk by means of a graph. As both the consequence and frequency in the risk matrix are measured by a category scale, applications of the risk matrix are limited in practice [35]. As mentioned in the introduction section, the event tree model is used to perform the risk analysis in most FSA application studies according to the level of data available.…”

Section: Risk Analysis Process Of Fsamentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment

Sun¹,

Zheng²,

Liu³

2018

Sustainability

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An uncertainty analysis is required to be carried out in formal safety assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization. The purpose of this article is to introduce the uncertainty analysis technique into the FSA process. Based on the uncertainty identification of input parameters, probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. An approach which combines the Monte Carlo random sampling of probability distribution functions with the a-cuts for fuzzy calculus is proposed to propagate the uncertainties. One output of the FSA process is societal risk (SR), which can be evaluated in the two-dimensional frequency-fatality (FN) diagram. Thus, the confidence-level-based SR is presented to represent the uncertainty of SR in two dimensions. In addition, a method for time window selection is proposed to estimate the magnitude of uncertainties, which is an important aspect of modeling uncertainties. Finally, a case study is carried out on an FSA study on cruise ships. The results show that the uncertainty analysis of SR generates a two-dimensional area for a certain degree of confidence in the FN diagram rather than a single FN curve, which provides more information to authorities to produce effective risk control measures.

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Risk Assessment of Operational Safety for Oil Tankers - A Revised Risk Matrix

Cited by 18 publications

References 27 publications

Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management

Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management

An Improved Failure Risk Assessment Method for Bilge System of the Large Luxury Cruise Ship under Fire Accident Conditions

Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment

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