Risk Assessment of Multi-Timescale Cascading Outages Based on Markovian Tree Search

Yao, Rui; Huang, Shaowei; Sun, Kai; Liu, Feng; Zhang, Xuemin; Mei, Shengwei; Wei, Wei; Liu, Ding

doi:10.1109/tpwrs.2016.2618365

Cited by 71 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Therefore, a two-stage scheme of risk assessment based on Markovian tree search is proposed. The offline stage is to conduct complete risk assessment with the available weather data, which has no big difference from the original version proposed in [1]. Then the online stage refines the result of risk assessment with updated weather data, updates the risk estimation index on MT, and continues several attempts of MT search to find new risk brought by the updated weather data.…”

Section: B Failure Rate Due To Sagging and Tree Contactmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to [1], the risk assessment based on Markovian tree search derives the expansion of cascading outage risk corresponding to the tree structure:…”

Section: A Update the Risk Terms On Mtmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…function updateREI(i k 1 · · · i kr ) if i k 1 · · · i kr is the end of cascade path ρ i k 1 ···i kr = ε R elseif i k 1 · · · i kr is not reached on MT ρ i k 1 ···i kr = ρ 0 i k 1 ···i kr ·P r(i kr |i k 1 · · · i k r−1 )/P r 0 (i kr |i k 1 · · · i k r−1 ) else (i.e. i k 1 · · · i kr has subordinate states) foreach subordinate state i k 1 · · · i kr i k r+1 updateREI(i k 1 · · · i kr i k r+1 ) endforeach update probability for MT search [1]:…”

Section: Algorithm 1 Updating Reis (Pseudo-codes)unclassified

“…W EATHER and environmental factors have ineligible effects on the reliability of power systems [1]. Since power systems cover vast geographical areas and large numbers of components are directly exposed to the environment, adverse weather conditions deteriorate the working conditions of the components and may even directly cause components to quit.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our previous work [13] has proposed an efficient method for the simulation of transmission line temperature evolution (TLTE) based on NWP data. Also, [1] proposed an efficient method for the risk assessment of multi-timescale cascading outages [14] based on Markovian tree (MT) search. The method provides time elapse in cascading outage processes, so that it can be utilized for the risk assessment of weather-related cascading outages by using NWP data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Toward Simulation and Risk Assessment of Weather-Related Outages

Yao

Sun

2019

IEEE Trans. Smart Grid

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Weather and environmental factors are verified to have played significant roles in historical major cascading outages and blackouts. Therefore, in the simulation and risk assessment of cascading outages in power systems, it is necessary to consider the weather and environmental effects. This paper proposes a method for the risk assessment of weather-related cascading outages. Based on the analysis of historical outage records and temperature-dependent physical outage mechanisms of transmission lines, an outage rate model considering weather condition and conductor temperature is proposed, and the analytical form of outage probability of lines are derived. With the weatherdependent outage model, a two-stage risk assessment method based on Markovian tree (MT) search is proposed, which consists of offline full assessment, and online efficient update of risk assessment results and continued MT search using updated NWP data. The test cases on NPCC 140-bus test system model in winter and summer scenarios verify the advantages of the proposed risk assessment method in both accuracy and efficiency.

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Section: B Failure Rate Due To Sagging and Tree Contactmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to [1], the risk assessment based on Markovian tree search derives the expansion of cascading outage risk corresponding to the tree structure:…”

Section: A Update the Risk Terms On Mtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Algorithm 1 Updating Reis (Pseudo-codes)unclassified

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Toward Simulation and Risk Assessment of Weather-Related Outages

Yao

Sun

2019

IEEE Trans. Smart Grid

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Power System Simulation Using Holomorphic Embedding Methods

Yao,

Sun,

Qiu

2023

Power System Simulation Using Semi‐Analytical Methods

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Real‐time risk assessment of cascading failure in power system with high proportion of renewable energy based on fault graph chains

Chen

Sun

Zhu

et al. 2023

Engineering Reports

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The access of a high proportion of renewable energies has deepened the randomness and complexity of cascading failures (CFs) in power systems. In this regard, a real‐time risk assessment method for CFs in power systems with high proportion of new energy is proposed. First, combined with historical statistical data and relevant national standards, a CF simulation model that considers the off‐grid protection action of renewable energy units in the event of a power grid fault is proposed. The model is based on the continuous steady‐state power flow model, which simulates the spread of CFs via continuous power flow calculations. Second, via introducing the concept of a fault graph chain, the electrical and topological characteristics of the continuous dynamic of the power system in the process of CFs can be described. Then, through continuous CF simulation and replay buffer, a data‐driven method is used to calculate the CF risk index corresponding to the fault graph. Finally, a cascaded graph neural network is employed to fit the nonlinear mapping relationship between fault graphs and CF risk indicators. The simulation results in the IEEE 39‐bus system show that the proposed method can accurately and real‐time evaluate the risk of CFs.

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Risk Assessment of Multi-Timescale Cascading Outages Based on Markovian Tree Search

Cited by 71 publications

References 44 publications

Toward Simulation and Risk Assessment of Weather-Related Outages

Toward Simulation and Risk Assessment of Weather-Related Outages

Power System Simulation Using Holomorphic Embedding Methods

Real‐time risk assessment of cascading failure in power system with high proportion of renewable energy based on fault graph chains

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