Risk Assessment of Equipment Research Project Costs Based on FAHP-CRITIC Combined Weights for 2D Cloud Models

Abstract

The development process of equipment research projects is fraught with uncertainties, making it challenging to provide an accurate and objective evaluation of their development costs. To enhance the accuracy of cost prediction for equipment research projects, it is essential to consider the cost risk level and conduct relevant research on cost risk assessment. This study proposes an improved two-dimensional cloud model that integrates qualitative concepts and quantitative data for researching equipment projects. An assessment index system is constructed with three primary indicators and twelve secondary indicators. The main factors affecting the cost are comprehensively considered. The probability of overspending and the degree of impact of overspending are taken as the basic variables for assessing each indicator according to the definition of cost risk. The study combined the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method with the Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation (CRITIC) method using the cooperative game method to determine the weights of each assessment indicator. Subsequently, a two-dimensional cloud model was established to obtain the cloud eigenvalues. A two-dimensional cloud diagram was drawn through MATLAB to initially determine the risk level, and the closeness was calculated to accurately determine the results. Finally, using a specific anti-mine system as an example, we verified the validity and feasibility of the model by comparing it with the traditional method. The results demonstrate that the improved two-dimensional cloud model can overcome the ambiguity and randomness of data in cost risk assessment and can provide a reference for other scientific research projects of the same type.