Risk assessment of drought-induced water scarcity in upper and middle reaches of Xiu River

Liu, L N; Liu, W L

doi:10.1088/1755-1315/59/1/012057

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 8 publications

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“…Hashimoto, et al [15] were the first to propose quantitative assessment indicators for water scarcity risks, including reliability, vulnerability, and resilience, from the perspective of the probability of water resource system failures. Subsequently, indicators such as the Falkenmark Water Stress Index [16], per capita water scarcity standards [17], Social Water Stress Index (SWSI) [18], Water Poverty Index (WPI) [19][20][21], and Water Scarcity Risk Index (WSRI) [22] have been proposed for assessing the degree and risk of water scarcity at both global and regional scales [23][24][25][26]. The aforementioned methods extract key elements from events and factors causing water scarcity to construct an evaluation indicator system for quantifying water shortage risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Water Shortage Risk Assessment Model Based on Kernel Density Estimation and Copulas

Qian,

Shi,

et al. 2024

Water

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Accurate assessment and prediction of water shortage risk are essential prerequisites for the rational allocation and risk management of water resources. However, previous water shortage risk assessment models based on copulas have strict requirements for data distribution, making them unsuitable for extreme conditions such as insufficient data volume and indeterminate distribution shapes. These limitations restrict the applicability of the models and result in lower evaluation accuracy. To address these issues, this paper proposes a water shortage risk assessment model based on kernel density estimation (KDE) and copula functions. This approach not only enhances the robustness and stability of the model but also improves its prediction accuracy. The methodology involves initially utilizing kernel density estimation to quantify the random uncertainties in water supply and demand based on historical statistical data, thereby calculating their respective marginal probability distributions. Subsequently, copula functions are employed to quantify the coupled interdependence between water supply and demand based on these marginal probability distributions, thereby computing the joint probability distribution. Ultimately, the water shortage risk is evaluated based on potential loss rates and occurrence probabilities. This proposed model is applied to assess the water shortage risk of the Yuxi water receiving area in the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project, and compared with existing models through experimental contrasts. The experimental results demonstrate that the model exhibits evident advantages in terms of robustness, stability, and evaluation accuracy, with a rejection rate of 0 for the null hypothesis of edge probability fitting and a smaller deviation in joint probability fitting compared to the most outstanding model in the field. These findings indicate that the model presented in this paper is capable of adapting to non-ideal scenarios and extreme climatic conditions for water shortage risk assessment, providing reliable prediction outcomes even under extreme circumstances. Therefore, it can serve as a valuable reference and source of inspiration for related engineering applications and technical research.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Water Shortage Risk Assessment Model Based on Kernel Density Estimation and Copulas

Qian,

Shi,

et al. 2024

Water

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Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island

Kanakoudis

Tsitsifli

Παπαδοπούλου

et al. 2017

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.

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Research on risk assessment of natural disaster based on cloud fuzzy clustering algorithm in Taihang Mountain

Wen

Shi

Liu³

2019

IFS

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Risk assessment of drought-induced water scarcity in upper and middle reaches of Xiu River

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

A Water Shortage Risk Assessment Model Based on Kernel Density Estimation and Copulas

A Water Shortage Risk Assessment Model Based on Kernel Density Estimation and Copulas

Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island

Research on risk assessment of natural disaster based on cloud fuzzy clustering algorithm in Taihang Mountain

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