Abstract. Desertification is influenced by different factors that relate to climate, soil, topography, geology, vegetation, human pressure and land and water management. The quantification of these factors into spatially explicit indicators and subsequent evaluation provides for a framework that allows to identify areas currently at risk of desertification and to evaluate important contributing bio-physical and socio-economic factors. Applied to south-east Vietnam, a baseline 2010 map showed that 14.4 % of the area, mainly along the coast and in the north east, is desertified with another 35.4 % at severe risk of desertification. The Ministry of Environment has defined the area with a ratio of rainfall to evapotranspiration smaller or equal to 0.65, which equals 1,233 km2 or 15 % of the province, as desertified area. The developed framework allows for decision support in a what if structure, and for the projection of potentially vulnerable areas under future scenarios. With projected climate change and current population growth the desertified area is expected to increase with 122 % (or 137,850 ha) towards 2050. The methodology can be extended to neighbouring provinces that experience similar sensitivities to desertification.