Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes

Grech

Eur J Clin Investigation

2022

Self Cite

Background All events in Europe, including EURO2020 football championship, were postponed due to Covid‐19 in 2020. Instead, Euro2020 took place in 2021, as mitigation measures were relaxed, cross‐country mobility increased and the Delta variant was spreading across Europe. This study explored the possibility of an increased Covid‐19 spread across Europe following EURO2020 matches. Methods Covid‐19 data on cases, vaccination and delta variant for participating countries, host cities/regions and neighbouring countries, for May till July 2021, were obtained from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Our World in Data, Johns Hopkins COVID‐19 Dashboard and the UK Government website. EURO2020 data were obtained from the Union of European Football Associations official website. Results A general increase in Covid‐19 positivity trend in Europe was observed following a week of EURO2020 matches across most countries and host cities. A similar trend was observed for the Delta variant sample positivity rate. The increased incidence was mostly among the young generation (<49 years). A decline in positive cases was observed on a national level for most countries following the Finals match. Conclusion The EURO2020 was an anticipated mass sports event, and it was the first‐time spectators were allowed to enter stadiums in Europe. Stadiums instituted several mitigations to safeguard the spectators although reports of transmission were still present. The major challenges were the gatherings outside the stadiums that might have contributed to these observations. Targeted restrictions might be required during mass sport events especially in the presence of highly transmissible variant(s) and low vaccination rates among the young generation.

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 58%

An observational study of the Covid‐19 situation following the first pan‐European mass sports event

Grech

Eur J Clin Investigation

2022

Self Cite

“…Ethnic and racial minority communities have 10–50% higher COVID-19 mortality risk when compared to Whites in the U.S. and the UK [ 13 ]. Blacks were less likely to participate in the COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials and have high rates of vaccine hesitancy [ 10 , 27 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It tends to be highest among Black people, women, and conservatives [ 12 ]. Vaccination status is particularly impactful since those who are vaccinated will experience fewer community and travel restrictions [ 13 ]. The World Health Organization’s (WHO) Model of Vaccine Hesitancy indicates that this behavior is attributable to a cluster of three factors (3Cs): confidence, complacency, and convenience [ 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dialogue-based interventions are a low-cost strategy to effectively reduce vaccine hesitancy [ 23 ]. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that interventions should: (1) clearly identify a target audience, (2) facilitate meaningful engagement, (3) consider contextual and multi-level influences, (4) address population-specific concerns in a multifaceted manner, and (5) evaluate the effectiveness [ 13 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Faith, Fear, and Facts: A COVID-19 Vaccination Hesitancy Intervention for Black Church Congregations

et al. 2022

Background: Blacks are dying from the novel coronavirus of 2019 (COVID-19) at disproportionate rates and tend to have more COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy than Whites. These disparities may be attributable to health knowledge and government/medical mistrust stemming from negative experiences with the medical system historically and presently (e.g., the Tuskegee Experiment, provider maltreatment). Method: The present study assessed COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and the effectiveness of a 1.5 h, dialogue-based, web intervention hosted by an academic–community partnership team. The webinar included approximately 220 male and female, English speaking, Black churchgoers in the western U.S. The webinar focused on the psychology of fear and facts about the vaccine development. Results: The sample was mostly females who had higher vaccine hesitancy than men. A third of participants feared hospitalization if they contracted COVID-19. Many participants reported that learning facts about COVID-19 was most impactful. Statistical analyses indicated an increased willingness to get vaccinated after the webinar in comparison to before (t(25) = −3.08, p = 0.005). Conclusion: The findings suggest that virtual webinars may be effective at reducing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among Black churchgoers and may be applicable in addressing other health behaviors.

“…Due to heterogeneities in vaccine uptake across German states, these values may differ by region. Our analysis cannot answer questions regarding the quality of achieved immunity against infection or disease, because we consider neither waning of immunity nor the emergence of variants with immune evasive properties, which is difficult to predict [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the distribution of COVID-19-susceptible, -recovered, and -vaccinated individuals in Germany up to April 2022

Maier

Rose

Burdinski

et al. 2022

Preprint

After having affected the population for two years, the COVID-19 pandemic has reached a phase where a considerable number of people in Germany have been either infected with a SARS-CoV-2 variant, vaccinated, or both. Yet the full extent to which the population has been in contact with either virus or vaccine remains elusive, particularly on a regional level, because (a) infection counts suffer from under-reporting, and (b) the overlap between the vaccinated and recovered subpopulations is unknown. Since previous infection, vaccination, or especially a combination of both reduce the risk of severe disease, a high share of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 immunity lowers the probability of severe outbreaks that could potentially overburden the public health system once again, given that emerging variants do not escape this reduction in susceptibility. Here, we estimate the share of immunologically naïve individuals by age group for each of the 16 German federal states by integrating an infectious disease model based on weekly incidences of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the national surveillance system and vaccine uptake, as well as assumptions regarding under-ascertainment. We estimate a median share of 7.0% of individuals in the German population have neither been in contact with vaccine nor any variant as of March 31, 2022 (quartile range [3.6%– 9.8%]). For the adult population at higher risk of severe disease, this figure is reduced to 3.5% [1.3%–5.5%] for ages 18–59 and 4.3% [2.7%–5.8%] for ages 60 and above. However, estimates vary between German states mostly due to heterogeneous vaccine uptake. Excluding Omicron infections from the analysis, 16.1% [14.0%–17.8%] of the population in Germany, across all ages, are estimated to be immunologically naïve, highlighting the large impact the Omicron wave had until the beginning of spring in 2022.