Risk assessment of a liquefied natural gas process facility using bow‐tie and Bayesian networks

Zerrouki, Hamza

doi:10.1002/prs.12341

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…In this study, the BT of liquid ammonia tank leakage was converted to BN. The mapping algorithm is based on the work in Reference [15,31] as shown in Figure 4. 1.…”

Section: Bayesian Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…BN has been used for quantitative risk assessment during the storage and transportation of hazardous chemicals in References [11–13] and risk analysis in process industries in Reference [14] It is a practical and efficient method to analyze accident causes and predict accident probabilities by combining BT and BN. References [15–17] presented risk assessment methodologies to identify, analyze, and evaluate the risk associated with different consequences of gas process facilities or pipelines. By mapping BT to BN, Reference [18] proposed a risk assessment model for storage tank leakage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

Zhang,

Wang,

Chen

et al. 2023

Process Safety Progress

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This paper presents a quantitative risk assessment method to predict the potential risks of liquid ammonia tanks. The method combines probabilistic prediction and consequence assessment: the former is predicted by Bayesian networks derived from bow‐tie mapping, in which the conditional probabilities are determined by analytic hierarchy process, the latter is calculated based on numerical simulation of accident consequences and Probit probability model. The application results show that the method can be used for quantitative risk assessment of liquid ammonia storage tank, and the Bayesian network model is efficient and stable, which can realize risk prediction, accident causes analysis and risk mitigation analysis. Human errors during production or maintenance and corrosion are the main causes of liquid ammonia leakage. Toxicity has the greatest effect on the risk of liquid ammonia tanks. Risk mitigation measures can significantly reduce individual risk and societal risk. The obtained results provide meaningful guidance for the prevention and risk mitigation strategies of liquid ammonia leakage accidents, so as to improve the safety level of liquid ammonia during storage.

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“…In this study, the BT of liquid ammonia tank leakage was converted to BN. The mapping algorithm is based on the work in Reference [15,31] as shown in Figure 4. 1.…”

Section: Bayesian Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

Zhang,

Wang,

Chen

et al. 2023

Process Safety Progress

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“…Rodgers and R. Oppenheim 16 combine cause‐and‐effect diagrams with Bayesian belief networks to establish a framework to estimate causal relationships in instances where formal data collection/analysis activities are too costly or impractical which helps to estimate the likelihood of risk scenarios using computer‐based simulation. Bayesian networks are widely used for dynamic safety and risk modeling, dynamic risk‐based maintenance, 17,18 risk assessment of process industries, 19 and envisaging potential accidents predicting the likelihood of accidents 20,21 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bayesian networks are widely used for dynamic safety and risk modeling, dynamic risk-based maintenance, 17,18 risk assessment of process industries, 19 and envisaging potential accidents predicting the likelihood of accidents. 20,21 A comparison of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), cause and effect analysis, and a Pareto diagram in conjunction with hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) are applied to the risk assessment of potato chips manufacturing plant in Reference 22.…”

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confidence: 99%

Workplace accident analysis in the Algerian oil and gas industry

Zerrouki

Ghozlane

Lugo

et al. 2023

Process Safety Progress

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A total of 42,032 workplace accidents were reported in 2021 by the Algerian National Social Insurance Fund for Salaried Workers in Algeria, of which 38,225 were accidents within the workplace and 3807 were related to traffic accidents or other reasons. Most of these accidents were recorded in the building and construction field, followed by the oil and gas company exploration and drilling, which comes at the forefront of the Sonatrach company. This study aims to analyze accidents in the workplace using quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the corresponding causes. Our study was carried out in collaboration with Sonatrach in south Algeria where information and reports on work accidents from years 2017 to 2021 were collected. Data acquired were classified and analyzed according to the location and time of the accident. Based on the results obtained, we found that the human factor was the main cause of most accidents due to nonrespect of safety procedures and lack of concentration of workers. The results of the analysis suggest implementation of a break time during the afternoon, avoiding long overtime hours, suspending work outside stations during high temperatures periods in July and August as well as suspending work when sandstorms appear in winter. K E Y W O R D S causal tree, Ishikawa diagram, occupational health and safety, oil and gas industry, quantitative and qualitative accident analysis, work accidents 1 | INTRODUCTION Workplace accidents have always greatly impacted various fields, especially in the economic and industrial fields. The Algerian National Social Insurance Fund for Salaried Workers in Algeria reported over 42,000 accidents in 2021. 1 The Algerian law of July 1983 provides in Article 6: "it is considered as an accident at work any accident having caused a bodily injury, attributable to a sudden, external cause and occurring within the framework of the employment relationship". 2 Worldwide, workplace accidents are witnessing frightening statistics, according to the International Labor Organization. Every 15 s, a worker dies from a work-related accident or illness. Also, every 15 s 153 workers suffer a work-related accident and 321,000 people die each year from work-related accidents. 3Despite all efforts to reduce these incidents, they still occur, especially in some industrial countries. In the past three decades, major industrial accidents have occurred, causing deaths and injuries to workers. Among these incidents:• The Ocean Ranger tragedy in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada occurred on 15 February 1982 and caused the death of 84 workers.The rig in Ocean Ranger was designed and built by Onshore Drilling and Exploration Company (ODECO) in 1976. 4• Sayano-Shushenskaya power station accident in Yenisei River, near Sayanogorsk in Khakassia, Russia. Occurred on 17 August 2009 at 08:13, 75 people were killed and billions of roubles were lost. 5

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“…This analysis shows the usefulness of matching PIF to BBN for decision-making in any critical technology infrastructure. Zerrouki (2022) proposed a risk assessment methodology that is presented to identify, analyze and assess the risks associated with the various consequences of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing plant from Western Algeria. Bow tie (BT) analysis is used to identify possible causes of hazardous events and hazardous effects and consequences of failure of safety barriers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization the reliability of emergency safety barriers based on the subjective safety analysis and evidential reasoning theory. Case study

Daas

Innal

2023

IJQRM

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PurposeThis study aims to improve the reliability of emergency safety barriers by using the subjective safety analysis based on evidential reasoning theory in order to develop on a framework for optimizing the reliability of emergency safety barriers.Design/methodology/approachThe emergency event tree analysis is combined with an interval type-2 fuzzy-set and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. In order to the quantitative data is not available, this study based on interval type2 fuzzy set theory, trapezoidal fuzzy numbers describe the expert's imprecise uncertainty about the fuzzy failure probability of emergency safety barriers related to the liquefied petroleum gas storage prevent. Fuzzy fault tree analysis and fuzzy ordered weighted average aggregation are used to address uncertainties in emergency safety barrier reliability assessment. In addition, a critical analysis and some corrective actions are suggested to identify weak points in emergency safety barriers. Therefore, a framework decisions are proposed to optimize and improve safety barrier reliability. Decision-making in this framework uses evidential reasoning theory to identify corrective actions that can optimize reliability based on subjective safety analysis.FindingsA real case study of a liquefied petroleum gas storage in Algeria is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed methodology provides the possibility to evaluate the values of the fuzzy failure probability of emergency safety barriers. In addition, the fuzzy failure probabilities using the fuzzy type-2 AHP method are the most reliable and accurate. As a result, the improved fault tree analysis can estimate uncertain expert opinion weights, identify and evaluate failure probability values for critical basic event. Therefore, suggestions for corrective measures to reduce the failure probability of the fire-fighting system are provided. The obtained results show that of the ten proposed corrective actions, the corrective action “use of periodic maintenance tests” prioritizes reliability, optimization and improvement of safety procedures.Research limitations/implicationsThis study helps to determine the safest and most reliable corrective measures to improve the reliability of safety barriers. In addition, it also helps to protect people inside and outside the company from all kinds of major industrial accidents. Among the limitations of this study is that the cost of corrective actions is not taken into account.Originality/valueOur contribution is to propose an integrated approach that uses interval type-2 fuzzy sets and AHP method and emergency event tree analysis to handle uncertainty in the failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers. In addition, the integration of fault tree analysis and fuzzy ordered averaging aggregation helps to improve the reliability of the fire-fighting system and optimize the corrective actions that can improve the safety practices in liquefied petroleum gas storage tanks.

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Risk assessment of a liquefied natural gas process facility using bow‐tie and Bayesian networks

Cited by 4 publications

References 41 publications

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

Workplace accident analysis in the Algerian oil and gas industry

Optimization the reliability of emergency safety barriers based on the subjective safety analysis and evidential reasoning theory. Case study

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