Risk assessment in railway rolling stock planning

Abstract

Rolling stock planning is one of the steps in the traffic planning process considered from the railway undertaking's point of view. It is directly related to the efficiency of rolling stock utilisation, which should be ensured at the highest possible level in the case of rail transport. The planning work stage is subject to certain risks (threats and opportunities), which, if they materialise, will impact it. It, therefore, makes sense to carry out analyses that can anticipate specific events in good time and introduce appropriate countermeasures in advance. This article aims to conduct a risk assessment process concerning rolling stock planning. It was assumed that the considerations were carried out based on the M_o_R (Management of Risk) methodology. Based on this methodology, risk identifica-tion and risk analysis (estimation of risk impact) were carried out. Risk assessment was carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The work identified sixteen risks that represent threats. The principle of risk description was used to identify risks. It requires indicating for each risk the reason for its occurrence and the effect it may have. As a part of risk estimation, variables were selected to assess each risk's impact on the objectives of the stage. Publicly available statistical data were used to define the variables. The variables were expressed in monetary units. The work identified five variables describing impact, which were assigned to the individual risks. As a trian-gular probability distribution was used for the variability of impact description, the variable's minimum, most likely, and maximum value was identified. A risk assessment was carried out for only two impact description varia-bles (for those variables used to describe the impact of the most significant number of risks). For each variable, statistical parameters were indicated and analysed. The resulting value of the variable describing the impact was then read out for each percentile, and the expected value of the risk was calculated. A detailed risk assessment was made for the lower, middle and upper quartiles. A histogram of the incidence of each variable value was presented, and an assessment was made.

An Estimation of the Energy Savings of a Mainline Diesel Locomotive Equipped with an Energy Storage Device

“…Modeling is important in creating modern equipment for vehicles [31,32] and rail transport systems in general [32][33][34]. Mathematical modeling is widely used, in particular, for the study of rolling stock [35][36][37], traction power supply systems [38][39][40], infrastructure objects [41][42][43], traffic safety assessment [44,45], transportation process management [46], etc. The priority is mathematical modeling that does not require the production of physical prototypes of equipment and systems.…”

Evaluation of the Technological Process of Wagon Processing at Shunting Stations Using the Simulation Model

“…The execution of activities in nodal railway stations causes units (related to the tasks to be handled) such as trains, trainsets, wagons, uncouplers, and groups of wagons to be moved within the station. These units are formed by combining, splitting, or transforming in different configurations depending on the process's stage [11,15,21].…”

“…Using the method developed, a simulation of the wagon processing was carried out, for example, taking into account the following data:  number of tracks: Parrival (12), Kdirectional (20), Odeparture (12), Ttransit (12),  track length: 800 m (P, K, T groups), 1000 m (O groups),  average shunting locomotive speed: 12 km/h (unloaded), 5 km/h (pushing), 8 km/h (switching wagons),  wagons and trains: 1000 (number of wagons per day), the minimum number of wagons per train (15), and the maximum number of wagons per train (50).…”