Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities: critical overview and discussion

Faber, Michael Havbro; Stewart, Mark G.

doi:10.1016/s0951-8320(03)00027-9

Cited by 237 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…QRA is a complex inferential analysis. Faber and Stewart showed its reliability limits secondary to the intrinsic variation of phenomena, modelling uncertainty and statistical uncertainty [11]. Under given conditions of epistemic and scientific correctness, we also believe that QRA is the most effective issue for assessing system safety and improving the expected performance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Consistency and stability of risk indicators: The case of road infrastructures

Rossi¹,

Lombardi²,

Mascio³

2018

Int. J. SAFE

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Over the last decade, the World Road Association -PIARC and several European research projects, among which Ecoroads, have encouraged a promising reflection on risk analysis methods, acceptance criteria and safety practices applied to the road system. The goal of this research activity is the definition of best practice for safety analysis and management to be applied to network TERN (Trans European Road Network).Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) provides much information on safety management. Nevertheless, the potential fragility of the method, stochastic uncertainties (both parameters and models), and ethical aspect of criteria must be adequately analyzed. This paper focuses on all these aspects, assessing the reliability of QRA due to modeling errors and statistical errors, and assessing the statistical consistency of Risk Indicators of QRA.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Consistency and stability of risk indicators: The case of road infrastructures

Rossi¹,

Lombardi²,

Mascio³

2018

Int. J. SAFE

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“…Les méthodes d'analyse de risque et de fiabilité ont gagné en importance au cours des dernières années dans les déci-sions relatives à l'ingénierie civile [18]. Elles permettent aux décideurs de connaître la rationalité de leurs décisions, ce qui est particulièrement important dans les prévisions de crues, où les prévisions hydro-météorologiques sont particulière-ment incertaines.…”

Section: N Gestion Du Risqueunclassified

La prévision hydrométéorologique sur le bassin versant du Rhône en amont du Léman

et al. 2009

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“…Engineering risk assessment is generally based on a Bayesian interpretation of probabilities (Faber and Stewart 2003). Within this framework, it is useful to distinguish two fundamentally different types of uncertainties, namely epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.…”

Section: Modeling Uncertainty In Rock-fall Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and managing uncertainties in rock-fall hazards

Straub

Schubert

2008

Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Syste

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The assessment of rock-fall hazards is subject to significant uncertainty, which is not fully considered in general practice and research. This paper reviews and classifies the various sources of the uncertainty. Taking a generic framework for risk assessment as source, a probabilistic model is presented that consistently combines the different types of uncertainties, in order to obtain a unified estimate of rock-fall risk. An important aspect of the model is that it allows for incorporating all available information, including physical and empirical models, observations and expert knowledge, by means of Bayesian updating. Detailed formulations are developed for various types of information. Finally, two examples considering rock-fall risk on roads, with and without protection structures, illustrate the application of the probabilistic modeling framework to practical problems.

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Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities: critical overview and discussion

Cited by 237 publications

References 10 publications

Consistency and stability of risk indicators: The case of road infrastructures

Consistency and stability of risk indicators: The case of road infrastructures

La prévision hydrométéorologique sur le bassin versant du Rhône en amont du Léman

Modeling and managing uncertainties in rock-fall hazards

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