Risk assessment and evaluation of China’s policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane

Pan, Jinhua; Tian, Jie; Xiong, Hongkai; Liu, Zhixi; Yao, Ye; Wang, Yesheng; Zhu, Wenlong; Wang, Yue; Wang, Weibing

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008908

Cited by 14 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Number of cases in the community and mortality: Pan et al found that nationwide flight restrictions and mandatory quarantine imposed in 3 major cities in China have a similar effect to that of complete ban of flights in China on both number of cases and deaths. These two policy options are more effective than flight restrictions and quarantine of only passengers from countries with severe outbreaks 71 .…”

Section: Findings Of Included Studies On Effectiveness (N=65)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Public health effects of travel-related policies on the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods systematic review

Bou-Karroum¹,

Khabsa²,

Jabbour³

et al. 2021

Journal of Infection

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Objectives To map travel policies implemented due to COVID-19 during 2020, and conduct a mixed-methods systematic review of health effects of such policies, and related contextual factors. Design Policy mapping and systematic review Data sources and eligibility criteria for the policy mapping, we searched websites of relevant government bodies and used data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for a convenient sample of 31 countries across different regions. For the systematic review, we searched Medline (Ovid), PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and COVID-19 specific databases. We included randomized controlled trial, non-randomized studies, modeling studies, and qualitative studies. Two independent reviewers selected studies, abstracted data and assessed risk of bias. Results Most countries adopted a total border closure at the start of the pandemic. For the remainder of the year, partial border closure banning arrivals from some countries or regions was the most widely adopted measure, followed by mandatory quarantine and screening of travelers. The systematic search identified 69 eligible studies, including 50 modeling studies. Both observational and modeling evidence suggest that border closure may reduce the number of COVID-19 cases, disease spread across countries and between regions, and slow the progression of the outbreak. These effects are likely to be enhanced when implemented early, and when combined with measures reducing transmission rates in the community. Quarantine of travelers may decrease the number of COVID-19 cases but its effectiveness depends on compliance and enforcement and is more effective if followed by testing, especially when less than 14 day-quarantine is considered. Screening at departure and/or arrival is unlikely to detect a large proportion of cases or to delay an outbreak. Effectiveness of screening may be improved with increased sensitivity of screening tests, awareness of travelers, asymptomatic screening, and exit screening at country source. While four studies on contextual evidence found that the majority of the public is supportive of travel restrictions, they uncovered concerns about the unintended harms of those policies. Conclusion Most countries adopted full or partial border closure in response to COVID-19 in 2020. Evidence suggests positive effects on controlling the COVID-19 pandemic for border closure (particularly when implemented early), as well as quarantine of travelers (particularly with higher levels of compliance). While these positive effects are enhanced when implemented in combination with other public health measures, they are associated with concerns by the public regarding some unintended effects.

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Section: Findings Of Included Studies On Effectiveness (N=65)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Public health effects of travel-related policies on the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods systematic review

Bou-Karroum¹,

Khabsa²,

Jabbour³

et al. 2021

Journal of Infection

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With the continuous importation of COVID-19 cases from outside the country ( 33 – 35 ), and the increasingly subtle epidemiological history and atypical clinical manifestations ( 36 ), additional cases will appear in outpatient clinics for two or three generations ( 37 ). The performance of PCR-based diagnostic depended upon several factors such as sample type, different stage of infection in patient, the skill of the collection, and the quality and consistency of the PCR-based diagnosis assays being used ( 38 , 39 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Questionnaire Survey on the Current Situation and Experience in Prevention and Control Measures at Urology Clinics During the COVID-19 Epidemic in China

Zhu

Jiang

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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COVID-19, the coronavirus disease 2019; SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus 2; ACE2, angiotensin converting enzyme 2; S protein, spiked glycoprotein; TMPRSS2, transmembrane serine protease 2; WHO, World Health Organization.Purpose: Although the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, has been viably controlled in China, a new normal in healthcare strategies has become standard in China and worldwide. We conducted a questionnaire study to disseminate the experience from China in terms of urology outpatient prevention and control measures under standardized prevention policies against COVID-19.Participants and Methods: From May 3, 2020 to June 25, 2020, we conducted an anonymous cross-sectional questionnaire study, focused on the status of and experiences with outpatient urology prevention and control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The targeted respondents were urologists in mainland China, covering all levels of hospitals and clinics.Results: A total of 216 (97%) valid responses were collected. We found that 183 (85%) respondents were from outside of Hubei province in China. One-hundred-and-fifty-eight (73%) respondents believed that SARS-CoV-2 could be detected in urine, and that protection against urine exposure was needed. Over 80% of respondents recommended WeChat application or similar online video meetings for virtual outpatient consultations. The suggested flowcharts and recommendations to prevent new cases were easy to understand and approved by most physicians, which could provide reference for outpatient prevention and control. We still need to make adequate preparations under the new normal of the COVID-19 Epidemic, especially for those suspected of being infected.Conclusions: Although the scientific validation of the questionnaire is limited, it provides a first snapshot of the experiences relating to the prevention and control measures in urology clinics in China, and can inform future policies in this field.

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“…However, long-term and strict NPIs can lead to signi cant economic and social costs, and a second wave of infections is likely if they are relaxed too early [9,10]. COVID-19 was under control in China at the end of March 2020, but China faced a new challenge of recontamination due to close contact with foreign visitors because of increased travel to China [11,12]. The National Health Commission of China recommended that foreign personnel should be subject to nucleic acid testing and centralized quarantine or household quarantine for 14 days upon entry.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccination as an Alternative to Non-Drug Interventions to Prevent Local Resurgence of COVID-19

Pan

Zhu

Tian

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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Background While a COVID-19 vaccine protects people from serious illness and death, it remains concern when and how to relax from the high cost strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Methods We developed a stochastic calculus model to identify the level of vaccine coverage that would allow safe relaxation of NPIs, and the vaccination strategies that can best achieve this level of coverage. We applied Monto Carlo simulations more than 10,000 times to remove random fluctuation effects and obtain fitted/predicted epidemic curve based on various parameters with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) at each time point. Results We found that a vaccination coverage of 50.42% was needed for the safe relaxation of NPIs, if the vaccine effectiveness was 79.34%. However, with the increasing of variants transmissibility and the decline of vaccine effectiveness for variants, the threshold for lifting NPIs would be higher. We estimated that more than 8 months were needed to achieve the vaccine coverage threshold in the combination of accelerated vaccination strategy and key groups firstly strategy. Conclusion If there are sufficient doses of vaccine then an accelerated vaccination strategy should be used, and if vaccine supply is insufficient then high-risk groups should be targeted for vaccination first. Sensitivity analyses results shown that the higher the transmission rate of the virus and the lower annual vaccine supply, the more difficult the epidemic could be under control. In conclusion, as vaccine coverage improves, the NPIs can be gradually relaxed. Until that threshold is reached, however, strict NPIs are still needed to contain the epidemic. The more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant lead to higher resurgence probability, which indicates the importance of accelerated vaccination and achieving the vaccine coverage earlier. Trial registration We did not involve clinical trial.

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Risk assessment and evaluation of China’s policy to prevent COVID-19 cases imported by plane

Cited by 14 publications

References 13 publications

Public health effects of travel-related policies on the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods systematic review

Public health effects of travel-related policies on the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods systematic review

Questionnaire Survey on the Current Situation and Experience in Prevention and Control Measures at Urology Clinics During the COVID-19 Epidemic in China

Vaccination as an Alternative to Non-Drug Interventions to Prevent Local Resurgence of COVID-19

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