Risk and Uncertainty Analysis for Shrimp Trade in India using Value at Risk

Abstract

India seafood exports achieved an all-time high of 11,34,948 MT and US $ 5.78 billion during 2016-17 with shrimp as the major commodity constituting about 39 percent by quantity and 67 percent by value. India also becomes one of the top shrimp exporting country in the world being USA and Japan be the major markets and followed by South east Asia, European countries, China, Middle east, etc. but there is high risk and uncertainty in shrimp trade due to trade barriers, exchange rates, high competition among shrimp producing countries. In this paper, we estimate value at risk and tried to identified more risk pron markets between the two major markets i.e. USA and Japan markets.