Risk and Sustainability: Assessing Fishery Management Strategies

Abstract

We develop a theoretical framework to assess the sustainability of fishery management strategies, when the bioeconomic dynamics are marked by uncertainty and several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Stochastic viability ranks management strategies according to their probability to sustain economic and ecological outcomes over time. The approach is extended to build stochastic sustainable production possibility frontiers representing the trade-offs between sustainability objectives at any risk level, given the current state of the fishery. This framework is applied to a Chilean fishery faced with El Nio uncertainty. We study the viability of effort and quota strategies when catch and biomass levels have to be sustained. We show that (1) for these sustainability objectives, whatever the level of the outcomes to be sustained, quota-based management results in a better viability probability than effort-based management, and (2) the fishery's historical quota levels were not sustainable given the stock levels in the early 2000sCNRS Conicyt-Chile INRIA French Ministry of Foreign Affairs Conicyt-Chile, under ACT 10336 FONDECYT 1110888 BASAL Project (Centro de Modelamiento Matematico, Universidad de Chile) project BIONATURE of CIRIC, INRIA-Chil

A Simple Framework for Climate-Change Policy Under Model Uncertainty

“…Setting bounds on the latter could be considered a sort of "ecological" constraint, similar in spirit to the ones considered in the stochastic viability literature (e.g. [11,19,20]). Such an operation would increase the problem's dimensionality considerably, but it can be addressed, so long as the total number of distributions across indicators is not excessive.…”

“…Martinet [19] and Doyen and Martinet [12] made an explicit connection between stochastic-viability models and sustainability concepts such as the maximin criterion. Doyen et al [13] and Martinet et al [20] applied similar ideas to a setting of sustainable fishery management. In the stochastic component of this work, emphasis was placed on calculating the probability of different policies respecting the various sustainability constraints.…”

“…we consider L ∈ [5,20]. Losses in this range are considered very grave, to the extent that they are comparable to major economic calamities such as the Great Recession of 2008 and the Great Depression of the United States in the 1930's.…”

The Role of Intestinal Microbiota in Chicken Health, Intestinal Physiology and Immunity

“…Similarly, it has been found that oceanic climate changes caused by human activities are threatening fishery resources (McKelvey and Golubtsov, 2015;Martinet et al, 2015). Likewise, it is considered that some fish farming activities tend to cause ecological risks.…”

“…As oceanic climate changes are poorly predictable, the harvest of some coastal fishing countries is also affected by a deteriorating oceanic climate. For instance, Jackmackerel fishery in Chile encountered uncertainty, as threatened by El Niño (McKelvey and Golubtsov, 2015;Martinet et al, 2015). With respect to the impact of climate change, an essential point is a sea-level rise.…”