Risk and Protective Factors for Trajectories of Violent Delinquency Among a Nationally Representative Sample of Early Adolescents

Abstract

To estimate trajectories of violence using a longitudinal sample of adolescents, considering the effects of multiple domains of influences as differentiators between profiles of violent behavior. A nationally representative sample of 9,421 adolescents ages 15–26. Trajectories were estimated, and multinomial regression procedures were used to evaluate factors predicting membership in high-violence trajectory groups. Mediation analyses were conducted to evaluate the mediated effect of distal influences on violence. Three groups of violence trajectories were identified: (a) nonviolent (73.1%); (b) escalators (14.6%); and (c) desistors (12.3%). Peer alcohol use predicted both escalation and desistance; however, these effects were mediated through individual-level variables. Aside from baseline violence, no other risk factor predicted membership in the “escalator” group. The lack of significance in predicting escalation highlights the need for further study on the etiology of late onset violence. Implications for violence prevention are discussed.

Child and adolescent risk factors that differentially predict violent versus nonviolent crime

“…Trajectory studies by Nagin and Tremblay (1999) and replicated by Broidy et al (2003) across six, cross-national, longitudinal data-sets found that boys’ violent crime in late adolescence was best predicted by being in the highest trajectory of physical aggression from age 6–15 years. Similarly, several studies have documented higher levels of childhood physical aggression in samples of violent adolescents than those who committed nonviolent or no offenses (Lai, Zing, & Chu, 2015; Reingle et al, 2012). Theorists have suggested that adult violence emerges when an early propensity for hostile, domineering behavior is reinforced and overlearned during childhood and adolescence (Broidy et al, 2003).…”

“…However, rarely are youth followed from childhood through adulthood to determine whether distinct childhood and adolescent experiences differentially predict persisting adult patterns of violent versus nonviolent crime (Loeber & Farrington, 2012). This is a question of high practical significance, given the inordinate human costs of violent crime relative to nonviolent crime (Reingle, Jennings, & Maldonado-Molina, 2012). …”

“…3 | DYSFUNCTIONAL SOCIAL-EMOTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND LATER VIOLENT CRIME The most reliable predictor of later violent crime is elevated aggression in childhood (Loeber et al, 2009;Reingle et al, 2012). Trajectory studies by Nagin and Tremblay (1999) and replicated by Broidy et al (2003) across six, cross-national, longitudinal data-sets found that boys' violent crime in late adolescence was best predicted by being in the highest trajectory of physical aggression from age 6-15 years.…”

“…Similarly, several studies have documented higher levels of childhood physical aggression in samples of violent adolescents than those who committed nonviolent or no offenses (Lai, Zing, & Chu, 2015;Reingle et al, 2012). Theorists have suggested that adult violence emerges when an early propensity for hostile, domineering behavior is reinforced and overlearned during childhood and adolescence (Broidy et al, 2003).…”

Toward an Understanding of Risk and Protective Factors for Violence Among Adolescent Boys and Men: A Longitudinal Analysis

“…This study is important because boys and men have consistently higher rates of violence compared with women [1, 16]. Contextual and proximal risk and protective influences were evaluated as predictors of each pattern of violence longitudinally.…”