Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan

Cheng, William C.; Huang, Chien‐Lin; Wei, Chih-Chiang

doi:10.3390/w9060424

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 41 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, the flood inundation downstream and future water supply shortages are associated with reservoir operation rules particularly in the upper reservoir level limits (Chang et al 2017). Timely decision on the release of water from the reservoir will influence the short-term and longterm planning of flood control during storms, water supply distribution and reservoir operation rule optimisation (Cheng et al 2017). Hence, this decision demands regular restructuring of its guidelines, notes and parameters based on the recent flood events so as to present new scenarios according to demands (Ahbari et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Uysal et al (2018) applied optimisation technique for reservoir operation to account for the short-term and long-term goals with predictive control techniques. Cheng et al (2017) studied the flood control and water supply shortages with integrated approach using optimisation model and Monte Carlo simulations in Da-Ha creek basin in Taiwan. Saadatpour et al (2017) have applied various operation strategies to enhance optimisation by reducing spatial resolution of CE-QUAL-W2 software package and integrate it with artificial neural network for meeting water demands and hydropower generation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A box-model approach for reservoir operation during extreme rainfall events: A case study

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme rainfall events in an urban area pose various challenges to the water resource managers in terms of flood mitigation, inundation, water conservation and harvesting for drinking water supply. The objective of this study is to apply the box-model approach to evaluate reservoir operation during extreme rainfall events. A large water supply reservoir in Chennai was chosen to carry out this study. A box model, based on input-output parameters, is proposed to simulate the reservoir operation and hydraulic behaviour. Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) has been used to simulate the reservoir inflow hydrograph and to understand the runoff characteristics of the basin. Three extreme rainfall events occurred in past have been selected for the analysis. Three different scenarios have been framed to assess the reservoir performance. Reducing the initial storage to 50% and releasing water at the beginning of the event gives a possible solution for flood mitigation in reducing the outflow volume by 9-37% and delaying the time to peak by 1-6 h. Though the reduced outflow volume from this reservoir is less, it can help to mitigate the flood inundation to a significant extent. Thus the box-model approach presented here can be utilised as a simple tool to generate the various combinations of outflow hydrographs for any reservoir.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A box-model approach for reservoir operation during extreme rainfall events: A case study

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The traditional deterministic flood control operations for the reservoirs cannot provide the risks arising from the uncertainties. Many scholars have conducted research on risk analysis for flood control operations of reservoirs and other flood control structures [14][15][16]. Tosun et al calculated the risk of the seismic hazards of thirty-two large reservoirs in the Euphrates basin, based on seismic activities and physical properties [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Chen

Zhong

Wang

et al. 2018

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Real-time flood control operations of a cascade reservoir system under emergency conditions can reduce the social and economic loss caused by natural disasters. This paper proposes a risk-based model for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs under emergency conditions and uncertainties. The proposed model consists of three modules: emergency scenarios establishing, Monte Carlo simulations, and risk analysis. The emergency scenarios considered are earthquakes, extreme floods and failure of the spillways of a reservoir. The uncertainty factor considered is the forecast error of reservoir inflows, arising from model structural uncertainty and parameter estimating. The Monte Carlo simulations conduct the real-time flood control operation of reservoirs considering the proposed emergency events and uncertainties. The module of risk analysis performs the assessment of the operation schedules and calculates the risk of dam overtopping, based on the results from Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed model is applied to a cascade reservoir system in the upper reaches of Daduhe river basin in China. The results show that the maximum initial water level of the Shuangjiangkou reservoir is 2447 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) using the release capacity model and is 2444.5 m a.s.l. using the command model under the scenario of upstream dam break. The integrated risk of the reservoir increases with the initial water level and the uncertainty degree of the reservoir inflows. The decision-makers can choose the operation models according to the actual initial water level of the reservoir under different emergency scenarios.

show abstract

“…Flood forecasting is critical in many applications, such as flood warning [1], operation of a multi-reservoir system [2] and water resource management [3]. Conceptual rainfall-runoff models simplify and conceptualize these complex processes using a set of simple mathematical equations [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Regularized Dynamic System Response Curve for Real-Time Flood Forecasting Correction

Sun

Bao

Jiang

et al. 2018

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The dynamic system response curve (DSRC) is commonly applied as a real-time flood forecasting error correction method to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting. It has been widely recognized that the least squares (OLS/LS) method, employed by DSRC, breaks down ill-posed problems, and therefore, the DSRC method may lead to deterioration in performance caused by meaningless solutions. To address this problem, a diagnostically theoretical analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the numerical solution of the Fredholm equation of the first kind and the DSRC method. The analysis clearly demonstrates the derivation of the problem and has implications for an improved approach. To overcome the unstable problem, a new method using regularization techniques (Tikhonov regularization and L-Curve criterion) is proposed. Moreover, in this study, to improve the performance of hydrological models, the new method is used as an error correction method to correct a variable from a hydrological model. The proposed method incorporates the information from a hydrological model structure. Based on the analysis of the hydrological model, the free water storage of the Xinanjiang rainfall-runoff (XAJ) model is corrected to improve the model's performance. A numerical example and a real case study are presented to compare the two methods. Results from the numerical example indicate that the mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value (NSE) of the regularized DSRC method (RDSRC) decreased from 0.99 to 0.55, while the mean NSE of DSRC decreased from 0.98 to −1.84 when the noise level was increased. The overall performance measured by four different criteria clearly demonstrates the robustness of the RDSRC method. Similar results were obtained for the real case study. The mean NSE of 35 flood events obtained by RDSRC method was 0.92, which is significantly higher than the mean NSE of DSRC (0.7). The results demonstrate that the RDSRC method is much more robust than the DSRC method. The applicability and usefulness of the RDSRC approach for real-time flood forecasting is demonstrated via the numerical example and the real case study.

show abstract

Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan

Cited by 20 publications

References 41 publications

A box-model approach for reservoir operation during extreme rainfall events: A case study

A box-model approach for reservoir operation during extreme rainfall events: A case study

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Development of a Regularized Dynamic System Response Curve for Real-Time Flood Forecasting Correction

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About