Risk Analysis of High Pressure Gas Pipeline Leakage Based on Bow-tie Model and IAHP

Lv, Shuran; Wang, Wanqing

doi:10.1088/1755-1315/461/1/012079

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…In this study, the risk of "War and sabotage" had very little effect on the final risk level of the process. While in the study of Zhang et al., The effect of third-party sabotage on the risk level of pipelines was high, which seems to be the reason for this difference in the level of security of the two study environments [ 35 ]. Also In the study of Kraidi et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Jabbari

Gholamnia

Esmaeili

et al. 2021

Heliyon

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Background Risk assessment of gas pipelines is very important because of various hazards and economic losses. Using fuzzy logic increases the reliability and accuracy of the results. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the fuzzy risk of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas in the pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Methodology Extraction of all hazards from HAZOP and HAZID was carried out. Fuzzy risk assessment was performed using MATLAB software. Using fuzzy hierarchy process analysis, the weight of each basic risk item (BRI) was summed up in a framework, and the fuzzy risk level was determined with a five-state criterion including highly desirable, favorable, moderate, undesirable and highly undesirable. Results The final risk score was equal to 0.1492, which according to the five-state criterion the risk level is in the favorable area. The highest risk score was related to hot work with open flame item with a risk score of 0.2485. Conclusions The final risk score of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas in Siri–Assaluyeh gas pipeline is in the optimal area. Fuzzy risk assessment, compare to conventional risk matrices, provides more data to safety managers about the hazards and their rankings. Accordingly, the results are expected to be applicable to the safety managers while making decisions related to the risk management of gas pipelines.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Jabbari

Gholamnia

Esmaeili

et al. 2021

Heliyon

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show abstract

“…It is widely used in safety evaluation, as it intuitively and comprehensively analyzes several elements that lead to top events, and enables the effective prevention of accidents by allowing sources of risk to be identified, risk factors to be discriminated, safety barriers to be set, and control measures to be implemented to prevent and reduce risks. Among the many accident analysis models, the BT model has been shown to be reliable for accident risk assessment and risk management [ 25 , 26 ]. A typical BT model is shown in Fig 2 , where the fault tree is on the left and the event tree is on the right.…”

Section: Risk Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…risk management [25,26]. A typical BT model is shown in Fig 2 , where the fault tree is on the left and the event tree is on the right.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic risk assessment of a coal slurry preparation system based on the structure-variable Dynamic Bayesian Network

Liu,

Wu,

Hou

2024

PLoS ONE

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In order to strengthen the safety management of coal slurry preparation systems, a dynamic risk assessment method was established by using the bow-tie (BT) model and the Structure-variable Dynamic Bayesian Network (SVDBN). First, the BT model was transformed into a static Bayesian network (BN) model of the failure of a coal slurry preparation system by using the bow-tie model and the structural similarity of the Bayesian cognitive science, based on the SVDBN recursive reasoning algorithm. The risk factors of the coal slurry preparation system were deduced using the Python language in two ways, and at the same time, preventive measures were put forward according to the weak links. In order to verify the accuracy and feasibility of this method, the simulation results were compared with those obtained using GeNIe software. The reasoning results of the two methods were very similar. Without considering maintenance factors, the failure rate of the coal slurry preparation system gradually increases with increasing time. When considering maintenance factors, the reliability of the coal slurry preparation system will gradually be maintained at a certain threshold, and the maintenance factors will increase the reliability of the system. The proposed method can provide a theoretical basis for the risk assessment and safety management of coal slurry preparation systems.

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“…Some conventional methods can address the issues associated with this type of risk. The fault tree analysis method [ 6 ], event tree method [ 7 ], and bow-tie method [ 8 , 9 ] use diagrams to illustrate the main processes that occur during the initial and subsequent stages of potential events. However, these methods simplify the risk factors using Boolean logic, and the relevant events are generally assumed to be mutually independent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Risk Treatment Strategy Model for Oil Pipeline Accidents Based on a Bayesian Decision Network Model

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Risk treatment is an effective way to reduce the risk of oil pipeline accidents. Many risk analysis and treatment strategies and models have been established based on the event tree method, bow-tie method, Bayesian network method, and other methods. Considering the characteristics of the current models, a risk treatment strategy model for oil pipeline accidents based on Bayesian decision network (BDNs) is proposed in this paper. First, the quantitative analysis method used in the Event-Evolution-Bayesian model (EEB model) is used for risk analysis. Second, the consequence weights and initial event likelihoods are added to the risk analysis model, and the integrated risk is obtained. Third, the risk treatment strategy model is established to achieve acceptable risk with optimal resources. The risk treatment options are added to the Bayesian network (BN) risk analysis model as the decision nodes and utility nodes. In this approach, the BN risk analysis model can be transformed into a risk treatment model based on BDNs. Compared to other models, this model can not only identify the risk factors comprehensively and illustrate the incident evolution process clearly, but also can support diverse risk treatment strategies for specific cases, such as to reduce the integrated risk to meet acceptable criterion or to balance the benefit and cost of an initiative. Furthermore, the risk treatment strategy can be updated as the risk context changes.

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Risk Analysis of High Pressure Gas Pipeline Leakage Based on Bow-tie Model and IAHP

Cited by 3 publications

References 9 publications

Risk assessment of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Risk assessment of fire, explosion and release of toxic gas of Siri–Assalouyeh sour gas pipeline using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Dynamic risk assessment of a coal slurry preparation system based on the structure-variable Dynamic Bayesian Network

A Risk Treatment Strategy Model for Oil Pipeline Accidents Based on a Bayesian Decision Network Model

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