Risk Analysis for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Reservoir

Chen, Juan; Zhong, Ping‐an; Xu, Bin; Zhao, Yong

doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000490

Cited by 34 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…where E[H(t)] and D[H(t)] refer to the average and the variance of H(t), respectively, and their derivation details are given by Chen et al (2014). Therefore, based on Eq.…”

Section: The Reservoir Discharge Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk analysis for the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir

Chen

Zhong

Zhao

et al. 2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Many uncertainty factors are associated with the joint operation of a reservoir and its downstream river, which create risks in flood control decisions. Therefore, this paper proposes an analytical method for the estimation of the uncertainties and their risks in real-time flood control decisions. Three uncertainty factors, including reservoir discharge errors, forecasting errors of lateral inflows and river food routing errors are proposed and modeled as stochastic processes, and their internal transforming formulas are derived based on the theory of routing before combination. The definition and calculation formulas for the risks of each moment and the integrated risk of the entire flood process at the downstream flood control section are proposed by an analytical approach based on the combination theory of stochastic processes. The Dahuofang reservoir in northern China is selected as the study case. The results indicate that the risk of the flood peak is higher than that of other moments under the same controlled flood discharge and that the risk that arises from the uncertainties of the reservoir discharge and lateral inflow is decreased by the river storage function. Compared with the Monte Carlo method, the proposed method is effective and efficient for performing risk analysis of the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir. The risk analysis results could provide important information regarding flood risks for the operators to implement flood control arrangements.

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“…where E[H(t)] and D[H(t)] refer to the average and the variance of H(t), respectively, and their derivation details are given by Chen et al (2014). Therefore, based on Eq.…”

Section: The Reservoir Discharge Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk analysis for the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir

Chen

Zhong

Zhao

et al. 2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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“…Che and Mays (2015) also investigate a modeling system that supports real-time reservoir operations before, during, and after an extreme flood event. Chen et al (2014) explore the many sources of uncertainties in real-time reservoir flood control operations.…”

Section: Reservoir System Operationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Flood Control Capabilities for Alternative Reservoir Storage Allocations

Demirel

Wurbs

2017

Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management

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Multiple-purpose reservoir system operations are based on the conflicting objections of maximizing storage contents to assure high water supply reliability and maximizing empty storage space to mitigate flood risk. Reallocation of storage capacity between conservation and flood control purposes provides a strategy for optimizing limited available storage capacity in response to growing demands and changing objectives. A modeling and analysis methodology is presented in the article for assessing alternative reservoir storage allocations. Flood control capabilities are evaluated in terms of the probabilities of overtopping the storage capacities of the reservoirs in the system. Water supply capabilities are quantified in terms of reliability metrics. Flood control analysis capabilities are implemented in a modeling system originally created for detailed assessments of water supply capabilities. The methodology is applied to a system of eight multiple-purpose reservoirs in the Dallas and Fort Worth metropolitan area in the Trinity River Basin of Texas in the United States. The generalized modeling system and analysis methods are applicable to reservoir systems located anywhere including systems that may be very complex.

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“…The term m is the time at which the forecasted flood peak of the inflows occurs. The distributions of inflow forecast errors at other moments are calculated through Equation (11), assuming that the relative errors of the forecasted inflows increase linearly with time [20]:…”

Section: Data and Parameters For The Scenario Of Upstream Dam Breakmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors also performed some work on risk analysis of reservoir operations. We proposed a risk analysis method for real-time flood control operation of a reservoir by solving a stochastic differential equation of reservoir flood routing [20]. We developed a model for supporting optimal flood control decision-making under uncertainty and evaluates the risk propagation process [21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Chen

Zhong

Wang

et al. 2018

Water

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Real-time flood control operations of a cascade reservoir system under emergency conditions can reduce the social and economic loss caused by natural disasters. This paper proposes a risk-based model for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs under emergency conditions and uncertainties. The proposed model consists of three modules: emergency scenarios establishing, Monte Carlo simulations, and risk analysis. The emergency scenarios considered are earthquakes, extreme floods and failure of the spillways of a reservoir. The uncertainty factor considered is the forecast error of reservoir inflows, arising from model structural uncertainty and parameter estimating. The Monte Carlo simulations conduct the real-time flood control operation of reservoirs considering the proposed emergency events and uncertainties. The module of risk analysis performs the assessment of the operation schedules and calculates the risk of dam overtopping, based on the results from Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed model is applied to a cascade reservoir system in the upper reaches of Daduhe river basin in China. The results show that the maximum initial water level of the Shuangjiangkou reservoir is 2447 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) using the release capacity model and is 2444.5 m a.s.l. using the command model under the scenario of upstream dam break. The integrated risk of the reservoir increases with the initial water level and the uncertainty degree of the reservoir inflows. The decision-makers can choose the operation models according to the actual initial water level of the reservoir under different emergency scenarios.

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Risk Analysis for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Reservoir

Cited by 34 publications

References 18 publications

Risk analysis for the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir

Risk analysis for the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir

Assessment of Flood Control Capabilities for Alternative Reservoir Storage Allocations

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

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