Risk analysis for determination of a tunnel support pattern

You, Kwang Ho; Park, Yeon-Jun; Lee, Jun S.

doi:10.1016/j.tust.2005.03.002

Cited by 39 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…However, these data are usually obtained through limited field surveys or indoor experiments, which is absolutely insufficient compared to the size of a wide area. Uncertainty intervenes in these data [55]. In this study, the probabilistic analysis technique was applied to quantitatively consider uncertainty and reflect it in the analysis.…”

Section: Monte Carlo Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Susceptibility Analysis of the Mt. Umyeon Landslide Area Using a Physical Slope Model and Probabilistic Method

et al. 2020

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Every year, many countries carry out landslide susceptibility analyses to establish and manage countermeasures and reduce the damage caused by landslides. Because increases in the areas of landslides lead to new landslides, there is a growing need for landslide prediction to reduce such damage. Among the various methods for landslide susceptibility analysis, statistical methods require information about the landslide occurrence point. Meanwhile, analysis based on physical slope models can estimate stability by considering the slope characteristics, which can be applied based on information about the locations of landslides. Therefore, in this study, a probabilistic method based on a physical slope model was developed to analyze landslide susceptibility. To this end, an infinite slope model was used as the physical slope model, and Monte Carlo simulation was applied based on landslide inventory including landslide locations, elevation, slope gradient, specific catchment area (SCA), soil thickness, unit weight, cohesion, friction angle, hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity; deterministic analysis was also performed for the comparison. The Mt. Umyeon area, a representative case for urban landslides in South Korea where large scale human damage occurred in 2011, was selected for a case study. The landslide prediction rate and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to estimate the prediction accuracy so that we could compare our approach to the deterministic analysis. The landslide prediction rate of the deterministic analysis was 81.55%; in the case of the Monte Carlo simulation, when the failure probabilities were set to 1%, 5%, and 10%, the landslide prediction rates were 95.15%, 91.26%, and 90.29%, respectively, which were higher than the rate of the deterministic analysis. Finally, according to the area under the curve of the ROC curve, the prediction accuracy of the probabilistic model was 73.32%, likely due to the variability and uncertainty in the input variables.

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Section: Monte Carlo Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Susceptibility Analysis of the Mt. Umyeon Landslide Area Using a Physical Slope Model and Probabilistic Method

et al. 2020

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“…You et al (2005) proposed a methodology to determine an optimal support pattern and advance rate for the design of a tunnel based on risk analysis. They quantitatively showed that the more the tunnel is supported, the higher the reliability index becomes and the more stable the tunnel is predicted to be.…”

Section: Application Of Reliability In Tunnel Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

Gharouni-Nik

Naeimi

Ahadi

et al. 2014

Int J Adv Struct Eng

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In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute to stability of the tunnel structure are recognized owing to identify various aspects of reliability and sustainability in the system. The selection of efficient support methods for rock tunneling is a key factor in order to reduce the number of problems during construction and maintain the project cost and time within the limited budget and planned schedule. This paper introduces a smart approach by which decision-makers will be able to find the overall reliability of tunnel support system before selecting the final scheme of the lining system. Due to this research focus, engineering reliability which is a branch of statistics and probability is being appropriately applied to the field and much effort has been made to use it in tunneling while investigating the reliability of the lining support system for the tunnel structure. Therefore, reliability analysis for evaluating the tunnel support performance is the main idea used in this research. Decomposition approaches are used for producing system block diagram and determining the failure probability of the whole system. Effectiveness of the proposed reliability model of tunnel lining together with the recommended approaches is examined using several case studies and the final value of reliability obtained for different designing scenarios. Considering the idea of linear correlation between safety factors and reliability parameters, the values of isolated reliabilities determined for different structural components of tunnel support system. In order to determine individual safety factors, finite element modeling is employed for different structural subsystems and the results of numerical analyses are obtained in different design scenarios. Finally, the reliability index values are obtained for the entire support structure in different design scenarios. The results of the work demonstrates that proposed reliability evaluation method of tunnel support system is effective not only for investigating the reliability of individual elements in the structure, but also for building an overall estimation about reliability performance of the entire tunnel structure.

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“…To develop a reliable design approach, one must use methods that incorporate the statistical variation of the numerical model input parameters representing the rockmass properties (i.e., mean, variance, and standard deviation, as well as the design of rock failure criteria (Kwangho et al 2005)). Probabilistic material properties of the greenstone footwall (due to its close proximity to the shear zone orebody and the dyke) are assigned.…”

Section: Probabilistic Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Stability of mine development intersections — a probabilistic analysis approach

et al. 2014

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Mine developments, such as haulage drifts, cross-cuts, and intersections, are the only way to access valuable ore from mining zones; they link mine developments with the nearest ore access points. Thus, they must remain stable throughout their service life or production plan. Mine development instability can cause production delay, loss of reserves, as well as damage to equipment and injury to miners. This paper presents a stepwise methodology to assess the stability of mine development intersections with respect to the mine production plan. A case study, the #1 Shear East orebody at Vale Garson Mine in Sudbury, Ontario, is presented. A three-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference model (FLAC 3D) is created to simulate the development of an intersection situated 1.5 km below ground surface. The unsatisfactory performance of the intersection is evaluated in terms of strengthto-stress ratio with respect to mining sequence. A failure criterion is defined by a minimum strength-to-stress ratio of 1.4, and is used for mine developments (temporary openings). The intersection stability is evaluated at various mining stages and the modified "point-estimate method" (PEM) of (2n 2 + 1) is then invoked to study the probability of drift instability at the intersection. The results are presented and categorized with respect to probability, instability, and mining stage. Résumé :Les puits d'extractions, les intersections et les galeries sont des lieux de passage nécessaires pour extraire les minéraux de la zone d'exploitation dans une mine. Ils relient les fronts d'exploitation aux lieux de décharge et de stockage et doivent par conséquent rester stables tout au long de la durée d'exploitation prévue lors de l'étape de planification. Des instabilités des de ces développements miniers peuvent conduire à des délais d'exploitation supplémentaires, des pertes de ressources, une distribution de contraintes induites accrue, ainsi que des dommages aux équipements et au personnel d'exploitation. Cet article présente méthode d'affirmation pas à pas une de la stabilité d'une intersection de galeries tout en respectant le plan de production. Une étude de cas du gisement Shear Est #1 dans la mine de Garson exploitée par Vale à Sudbury, Ontario est présentée. Une modélisation numérique trois-dimensionelle en comportement élastique-plastique avec le logiciel FLAC 3D est réalisée pour simuler le comportement d'une intersection de galeries à une profondeur de 1500 m. La probabilité de performance insatisfaisante est calculée aux différentes étapes de la séquence minière grâce au ratio contrainte/résistance. Le facteur de sécurité est fixé à 1,4 (ouvertures temporaires). La méthode de « point estimate » (2n 2 + 1) est utilisée pour calculer la probabilité de performance insatisfaisante. Les résultats sont présentés et classés selon les probabilités, le type d'instabilité et l'étape de la séquence minière.Mots-clés : développements miniers, modélisation numérique, point-estimation de la méthode (PEM).

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Risk analysis for determination of a tunnel support pattern

Cited by 39 publications

References 9 publications

Susceptibility Analysis of the Mt. Umyeon Landslide Area Using a Physical Slope Model and Probabilistic Method

Susceptibility Analysis of the Mt. Umyeon Landslide Area Using a Physical Slope Model and Probabilistic Method

Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

Stability of mine development intersections — a probabilistic analysis approach

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