Risk analysis for a cascade reservoir system using the brittle risk entropy method

Yang, Yin; Ren, Qingwen; Ying, Tian; Xiong, Yao

doi:10.1007/s11431-016-6013-6

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Step 1: According to the hydraulic relationship, one BNs model was created to perform the risk transmitting progress of the cascade dam system. In this study, it was necessary to use historical data, computational formulas, and expert experience of the relative information like experiments, simulations, analytical models, and similar previous studies [6,15,[26][27][28]35]. In the BN model, the sensitivity mode was used to obtain the risk factors and original continuous breaking failure path.…”

Section: Risk Analysis Of Cascade Dam Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China

Cai

Zhu

Peng

et al. 2019

Water

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To quantify the flood risks in cascade dam systems, it is critical to analyze the risk factors and potential breaking failure paths. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) were applied to create a flood risk analysis model for a cascade dam system. Expert experiment, historical data, and computational formulas were employed to estimate the prior probability and original conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BN model; sensitivity analysis was used to ensure the original continuous breaking failure path in the system. To avoid the possible misperceptions of the probability of a certain event, Dam Breach Analysis Model (DB-IWHR) 2014 software and the flood regulation method were used to simulate the dam breaking progress. The posteriori continuous breaking failure paths were obtained, and then the original CPTs were refined based on the new evidence. The proposed method was applied to the Bala-Busigou-Shuangjiangkou (BL-BSG-SJK), which is located upstream of the Dadu River basin in China. The results show that three continuous breaking failure paths could be identified in the researched cascade dam system. A new BN model was created to determine the failure probability of the cascade dam system under the three continuous breaking failure paths. This analytical method may also be useful for other similar cases.

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Section: Risk Analysis Of Cascade Dam Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flooding is the most disastrous natural hazard for the basin, and floods are transferred to the cascade dam system, like the domino effect [6]. Therefore, flood risk analysis for cascade dam systems is important.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China

Cai

Zhu

Peng

et al. 2019

Water

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“…In equations (4) and 5, Following the idea presented above, denote Figure 4. Then, the probability distribution of F 1 can be obtained as…”

Section: Bn-based Brittle Effect Metricmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology for assessing the reliability and security of cascade reservoir systems

Ying

Ren

Yang

et al. 2017

Proceedings of the IMechE

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The scale of cascade reservoir systems is increasing rapidly along with the development of hydroelectric projects in these systems. Related security problems are receiving increasing public attention. However, no security evaluation method for this type of system can be found in the literature. Reliability is an essential indicator to measure system security. Because of the brittleness, complexity, and polymorphism of the system, a Bayesian network and set pair analysis theory-based methodology suitable for the reliability analysis of cascade reservoir systems is suggested in this article. First, the topological structure of the Bayesian network is constructed, and the brittle effect is measured using the powerful probabilistic inference capability of the Bayesian network. Then, the probability distribution of each subsystem is obtained, and probabilities of the system in all states are integrated using set pair analysis theory. Furthermore, the composite reliability is proposed as a generic reliability representation for cascade reservoir systems. On this basis, through constructing a composite probability vector and composite probability matrix, the Bayesian network and set pair analysis theory-based reliability measure models for both subsystems and the whole system are proposed. Finally, the effectiveness and practicability of the method described above are verified by introducing an example application. The results show that this research provides a theoretical basis and practical method for assessing the reliability and security of cascade reservoir systems.

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“…The information entropy theory proposed by Shannon, as an alternative method, has widely applied to the risk analysis file. For instance, Yang et al [23] established a framework for risk analysis on cascade reservoir system using the brittle risk entropy method. Fan et al [24] advanced a coupled entropy-copula method for flood peak-duration risk analysis in the Xiangxi River.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Based on Mean-CVaR-Entropy for Flood Control Operation of Large Scale Reservoirs

Wang

Zhou

Huang

et al. 2019

Water

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The risk inevitably exists in the process of flood control operation and decision-making of reservoir group, due to the hydrologic and hydraulic uncertain factors. In this study different stochastic simulation methods were applied to simulate these uncertainties in multi-reservoir flood control operation, and the risk caused by different uncertainties was evaluated from the mean value, extreme value and discrete degree of reservoir occupied storage capacity under uncertain conditions. In order to solve the conflict between risk assessment indexes and evaluate the comprehensive risk of different reservoirs in flood control operation schemes, the subjective weight and objective weight were used to construct the comprehensive risk assessment index, and the improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method was used to select the optimal flood control operation scheme. The proposed method was applied to the flood control operation system in the mainstream and its tributaries of upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and 14 cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. The results indicate that proposed method can evaluate the risk of multi-reservoir flood control operation from all perspectives and provide a new method for multi-criteria decision-making of reservoir flood control operation, and it breaks the limitation of the traditional risk analysis method which only evaluated by risk rate and cannot evaluate the risk of the multi-reservoir flood control operation system.

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Risk analysis for a cascade reservoir system using the brittle risk entropy method

Cited by 10 publications

References 9 publications

Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China

Flood Risk Analysis for Cascade Dam Systems: A Case Study in the Dadu River Basin in China

A methodology for assessing the reliability and security of cascade reservoir systems

Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Based on Mean-CVaR-Entropy for Flood Control Operation of Large Scale Reservoirs

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