Rising Temperatures, Human Health, and the Role of Adaptation

Hondula, David M.; Balling, Robert C.; Vanos, Jennifer; Georgescu, Matei

doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0016-4

Cited by 205 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 110 publications

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“…As surveyed by Hondula et al (2015), much of this work is in public health, environmental health, and epidemiology. Among the approaches they catalog, the one most similar to ours is the "analog city" approach, where a city's future temperature-mortality relationship is assumed to resemble that of a city that currently experiences that city's future climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

Heutel

Miller

Molitor

2017

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We study heterogeneity in the relationship between temperature and mortality across U.S. climate regions and its implications for climate adaptation. Using exogenous variation in temperature and data on all elderly Medicare beneficiaries from 1992 -2011, we show that the mortality effect of hot days is much larger in cool ZIP codes than in warm ones and that the opposite is true for cold days. We attribute this heterogeneity to historical climate adaptation. As one adaptive mechanism, air conditioning penetration explains nearly all of the regional heterogeneity in heatdriven morality but not cold-driven mortality. Combining these results with projected changes in local temperature distributions by the end of the century, we show that failure to incorporate climate heterogeneity in temperature effects can lead to mortality predictions that are wrong in sign for both cool and warm climates. Allowing regions to adapt to future climate according to the degree of climate adaptation currently observed across climates yields mortality impacts of climate change that are much lower than those estimated without allowing for adaptation, and possibly even negative.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

Heutel

Miller

Molitor

2017

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“…However, little work has been done to project the heat-related health risk for older adults, a particularly vulnerable population subgroup9101516. Previous studies have attempted to determine the quantitative projection by considering potential changes in population17 and adaptation357181920. Very little has been reported on the health risk tradeoffs among heat, population, and adaptation under a changing climate.…”

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confidence: 99%

Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

Horton

Bader

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

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“…This is the first project of this scope and magnitude to evaluate community-sponsored cooling centers from a public health perspective (Bassil and Cole 2010;Boeckmann and Rohn 2014;Hondula et al 2015a;Woodward et al 2014). This evaluation is a first step toward understanding the facilitators and barriers for operating a specific local climate adaptation program and evaluating the public benefit.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Adaptation Strategies for Extreme Heat: A Public Health Evaluation of Cooling Centers in Maricopa County, Arizona

Berisha

Hondula

Roach

et al. 2016

Weather, Climate, and Society

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Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public during extreme heat events. During the summer of 2014, 53 cooling centers were evaluated to assess facility and visitor characteristics. Maricopa County staff collected data by directly observing daily operations and by surveying managers and visitors. The cooling centers in Maricopa County were often housed within community, senior, or religious centers, which offered various services for at least 1500 individuals daily. Many visitors were unemployed and/or homeless. Many learned about a cooling center by word of mouth or by having seen the cooling center's location. The cooling centers provide a valuable service and reach some of the region's most vulnerable populations. This project is among the first to systematically evaluate cooling centers from a public health perspective and provides helpful insight to community leaders who are implementing or improving their own network of cooling centers.

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Rising Temperatures, Human Health, and the Role of Adaptation

Cited by 205 publications

References 110 publications

Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

Assessing Adaptation Strategies for Extreme Heat: A Public Health Evaluation of Cooling Centers in Maricopa County, Arizona

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