This paper studies the one-phase Muskat problem driven by gravity and surface tension. The regime considered here is unstable with the fluid on top of a dry region. By a novel approach using a depth-averaged formulation, we derive two asymptotic approximations for this scenario. The lower order approximation is the classical thin film equation, while the higher order approximation provides a new refined thin film equation. We prove optimal order of convergence in the shallowness parameter to the original Muskat solutions for both models with lowregular initial data.