Right place, right time? Making crime pattern theory time-specific

Abstract

Objectives Crime pattern theory and the related empirical research have remained rather a-temporal, as if the timing of routine activities and crime plays no role. Building on previous geography of crime research, we extend crime pattern theory and propose that an offender’s spatial knowledge acquired during daily routine activities is not equally applicable to all times of day. Methods We put this extended theory to a first empirical test by applying a discrete spatial choice model to detailed information from the Netherlands on 71 offences committed by 30 offenders collected through a unique online survey instrument. The offenders reported on their most important activity nodes and offence locations over the past year, as well as the specific times they regularly visited these locations. Results The results show that almost 40% of the offences are committed within the neighbourhoods of offenders’ activity nodes, increasing to 85% when including first-, second- and third-order neighbourhoods. Though not statistically significant in our small sample, the results further suggest that offenders are more likely to commit crime in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day. Conclusion Our extension of crime pattern theory is only tentatively supported. We argue for replication research with larger samples before any firm conclusions are warranted.

Characterizing the Temporal Regularities of Crime

“…By reading the relevant literature, it is not difficult to find that criminal activities have potential time and space regularities [16]. We hope to study crimes in different cities in a general way to find clearer regularities of them.…”

“…Undoubtedly, for the crimes, the space factor has some interaction with the time factor. In the latest study of van Sleeuwen et al, they have presented an extended crime pattern theory that contains space and time factors, and it can better explain crimes [16].…”

Do Mobile Phone Data Provide a Better Denominator in Crime Rates and Improve Spatiotemporal Predictions of Crime?

“…MTUP has three dimensions: the first refers to temporal aggregation or the unit of time observation ('scale effect', e.g., minute, hour, or day); the second refers to the manner in which the temporal units are divided ('segmentation effect', e.g., starting a week on Sunday or Monday), and the third refers to the adjustments to the temporal extent of a time series ('boundary effect', i.e., the arbitrary start and end points of a time series) [33]. Although this ignorance is theoretically difficult to justify [35], it is explainable given the former unavailability of temporal finegrained data at that time. Currently, these data constraints-theoretically-no longer apply, since new and emerging data sources (or big data) hold the promise of "a data deluge -of rich, detailed, interrelated, timely and low-cost data -that can provide much more sophisticated, wider scale, finer grained understandings of societies and the world we live in."…”

It’s About Time

“…Previous research has consistently shown, for example, that most crimes are committed not far from offenders' homes (e.g., Bernasco & Nieuwbeerta, 2005;Townsley et al, 2015;Wiles & Costello, 2000). Other studies have found that their residential and offense histories are also important in explaining offenders' crime location choices (e.g., Bernasco & Kooistra, 2010;Kuralarasan & Bernasco, 2021;Lammers et al, 2015;Long et al, 2018), just like other routinely visited places, such as their schools, workplaces and leisure activities (e.g., Menting et al, 2020;Van Sleeuwen, Ruiter & Steenbeek, 2021;Chapter 5).…”

“…For example,Bernasco et al (2017) studied whether robbery location choice criteria, such as the presence of small businesses and high schools or distance from home, impact the offenders' location choices differently over the course of the day and over days of the week.They only found the effect of high schools to vary temporally while all other robbery location choice criteria had the same effects throughout the day and week Van Sleeuwen et al (2018; . Chapter 4) showed that offenders are more likely to return to previously targeted areas when the previous offense was committed on the same day of the week and at the same hour of day Van Sleeuwen et al (2021;. Chapter 5) generalized this idea by claiming that offenders are not only more likely to return to previously targeted areas at specific times, but they are also more likely to commit crime in neighborhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighborhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day.…”