Riesgo de tsunami en caleta Tubul, Región del Biobío: escenarios extremos y transformaciones territoriales posterremoto

Abstract

RESUMENSe analiza el riesgo de inundación por tsunami para un evento extremo en la localidad de Tubul (37ºS), Región del Biobío. Para el análisis de peligrosidad se determinaron tres escenarios asociados a los eventos tsunamigénicos locales de 1835 y 2010 a los cuales se aplicó modelamiento numérico. Se incluyó el evento de 1877 para determinar los efectos de un tsunami lejano. Se analizó la vulnerabilidad en sus dimensiones física, socioeconómica y educativa. El tsunami de 1835 se determinó como evento extremo, con alturas de inundación de 10 m y cota de inundación de 10 m. Se establecieron niveles de vulnerabilidad altos y medios explicados por la defi ciente materialidad de la vivienda y perfi l socioeconómico vulnerable de la población, bajos niveles de escolaridad y reacción frente a estos eventos. El riesgo natural obtenido se ubicó en niveles altos para toda la localidad. Se contrastan los resultados con el Plan de Reconstrucción vigente.Palabras clave: Desastres naturales, vulnerabilidad, resiliencia, planifi cación territorial. ABSTRACTThe risk of tsunami inundation is analyzed for an extreme event in the town of Tubul (37°S), Bio-Bio Region. Three scenarios were identifi ed for risk assessment, in all of which numerical simulation was applied. Two of the three scenarios were local tsunamis, the events of 1835 and 2010, and the event of 1877 was included to determine the effects of a far fi eld tsunami. The tsunami of 1835 was determined as an extreme event, which gave inundation heights of 10m and run-up of 10m. Vulnerability was analyzed from physical, socioeconomic and educational points of views. Two levels of vulnerability were defi ned, namely medium and high. These levels were selected based on the poor housing materials, the vulnerable socioeconomic profi les of the population, low educational levels and the population´s reactions to these tsunami events. The results show that natural risk is obtained at the high level in the whole town. These results were also compared with the current Reconstruction Plan.

Social Perception of Ecosystem Services in a Coastal Wetland Post-Earthquake: A Case Study in Chile

“…For example, according to Lindborg et al [55], the positive perception of ES provision is dependent on the connection of people to the landscape, which has been linked to low-intensity primary activities (e.g., agriculture), where habitats maintained in a semi-natural landscape state can offer biological, cultural, and heritage values, a situation similar to that reported in Tubul-Raqui regarding the intensity of economic activities. Regarding science, the opportunities for scientific research and environmental education were also highly recognized; the perception of these two services could be related to the large number of studies carried out in the wetland due to the environmental problems that emerged after the 2010 earthquake with various groups of scientists conducting research aimed at assessing the impact and socio-environmental recovery of the system [33,34,37,39] where studies have involved surveying the population and the use of artisanal fishing boats.…”

“…The exploitation of pelillo, combined with the extraction of marine mollusks and fish, generated income linked to the food supply. In addition, the water supplied by the wetland allowed the development of small-scale agricultural and livestock activity, which is limited by the poor quality of soils in the area [37,39]; furthermore, these economic activities are undertaken by a vulnerable population [34,37].…”

Evaluación del riesgo de inundación ante tsunami local en la isla de Cascajal, Pacífico Colombiano

“…El desplazamiento de los cuerpos de agua se produce en sentido radial al punto de origen. Los procesos que generan la aparición de tsunamis son conocidos como eventos tsunamigénicos, tales como, las erupciones volcánicas (Choi et al, 2003), eventos de remoción en masa (Geist, 1998;Wieczorek et al, 2004, Siebert, 2004Dengler et al, 2011), impactos cósmicos (Bryant, 2014;Poag et al, 2004;Warme & Kuehner, 1998) y por terremotos tectónicos (Kanamori, 1972;Abe, 1989;Zitellini et al, 1999;Cardona et al, 2007;Tinti et al, 2011;Martínez et al, 2012;Martínez y Aránguiz, 2016). La evaluación realizada en este estudio se hace en base a este último tipo de eventos, es decir, los terremotos de origen tectónico.…”

Risk factors and perceived restoration in a town destroyed by the 2010 Chile tsunami

“…Risk factors were integrated into a matrix (Eckert et al, 2012;Jelínek et al, 2012;Martínez et al, 2012) and three risk levels were obtained from the multiplication: high, medium and low, with scores from 1 to 9 (Table 4). Risk level is applied to analysis units, according to pre-and post-event conditions, in the GIS vulnerability section.…”

“…The 2010 Chile tsunami showed the high fragility of social and institutional systems in coastal areas, as significant destruction along 600 km of coastline was observed (Quezada et al, 2010;Fritz et al, 2011;Jaramillo et al, 2012;Sobarzo et al, 2012;Bahlburg and Spiske, 2012;Martínez et al, 2012). Historical records show that these phenomena are not sporadic in the country but rather highly recurrent, causing significant devastation (Lomnitz, 1970;Monge, 1993, Lagos, 2000Ruegg et al, 2011;Palacios, 2012).…”